Money that fails to serve change - The Australian Money that fails to serve change - The Australian

Friday, May 25, 2012

Money that fails to serve change - The Australian

Money that fails to serve change - The Australian

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FOREX-Euro off near 2-yr lows, but seen struggling - Reuters

Fri May 25, 2012 4:09am EDT

* Euro gets a respite, still on track for weekly losses

* EUR option barriers at $1.2500; stops at $1.2480

* USD/JPY supported by importers, short-covering

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, May 25 (Reuters) - The euro inched up from two-year lows against the dollar on Friday as bearish investors took a breather from a sharp sell-off this week, but worries about a possible Greek exit from the euro zone and risk of contagion would make gains fleeting.

The euro traded 0.3 percent higher on the day at $1.2575 , pulling away from $1.25155, its lowest level since July 2010 plumbed the day before. Traders cited a reported option barrier at $1.2500 that could check losses with offers around $1.2600 and stop-loss orders above $1.2620.

Despite the bounce, the common currency has lost more than 5 percent against the dollar so far this month and is on track for its fourth straight week of losses.

Those losses came as macro funds, real money and institutional investors ramped up selling of the currency, as concerns about Greece leaving the euro zone rose after an inconclusive election left the country at risk of bankruptcy and a possible exit from the currency bloc.

Greeks are voting again on June 17, with polls showing a close race between parties supporting and opposing terms of the country's international bailout, keeping markets on tenterhooks.

"The euro is a bit higher today, but I will be surprised if it takes stops above $1.2620. The medium-term prospects are not good," said Geoff Kendrick, currency analyst at Nomura.

"We think if Greece does not exit the euro zone, the euro will see a gradual decline to $1.23 in coming months. But if it does, then we see the euro falling to $1.20 by the end of the second quarter and $1.15 by the end the third."

Investors are just not rattled by the fallout of a Greek exit. They are also concerned about the health of the Spanish banking sector, chances of a deep and damaging slowdown in the euro area and the lack of any aggressive policy measures to address the escalating debt crisis.

Spanish lender Bankia, which was part nationalised this month, was set to ask the government for more than 15 billion (US$19 billion) on Friday to bail it out.

All of which has seen the euro being sold off on rallies with many analysts and traders now expecting it to drop below $1.25 and $1.20 to its 2010 trough of around $1.1875 in the coming weeks.

"If the euro didn't have enough to contend with as Greek exit speculation persists, the economic data points to a clear worsening in economic conditions," said Derek Halpenny, European Head of global markets research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi.

"The ECB will soon have to act again to ease its monetary stance by probably cutting the refinancing rate and this can only reinforce euro downside pressures."

DARKENING PICTURE

European Central Bank data showed 35.4 billion euros of net direct portfolio investment flowed out of the euro zone in March, as investors shunned the region's assets.

Investor skittishness is well-reflected in the options market, where euro/dollar one-month at-the-money implied volatility spiked to 13.13 percent, its highest in more than four months.

With the euro on the backfoot, the dollar has been the big winner with its index against a basket of major currencies edging up to 82.411, its highest since September 2010.

Against the yen, the greenback was 0.1 percent higher at 79.65 yen, supported by Tokyo importers and short-covering ahead of the long weekend in the United States. Sell offers around 80.00 yen are poised to cap any further gains, traders say.

The euro was flat against the Swiss franc at 1.2015 francs, having jumped to 1.20769 francs on Thursday, its highest since mid-March on market talk the Swiss government is going to impose a tax on deposits and chatter that the Swiss central bank initiated a short squeeze in the pair.

Traders say the Swiss National Bank has been buying euros in the past few weeks to protect the floor at $1.20 francs, but some investors are still piling on bets through the options market that the peg will be breached in coming days if the euro zone crisis escalates.



Forex: USD/CHF rallies back to 2012 highs, 0.9606 - FXStreet.com
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FOREX-Euro wallows at 2-year lows as EU worries rattle markets - Reuters UK

Fri May 25, 2012 7:29am BST

* EUR option barriers at $1.2500; stops at $1.2480

* Break of $1.25 targets June 2010 low of $1.1876

* USD/JPY supported by importers, short-covering

* DXY at its highest since Sept 2010

* Sell-off in Asian currencies weighs on Aussie

By Antoni Slodkowski

TOKYO, May 25 (Reuters) - The euro wallowed at two-year lows against the dollar on Friday and was poised to end the week two percent weaker, weighed down by weak German manufacturing data and worries about a messy Greek exit from the euro zone.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar dipped 0.2 percent to $0.9741, coming close to the six-month low of $0.9690 hit on Wednesday as a sell-off in emerging market currencies picked up steam.

Rattled by worries over lack of growth in the euro area, the fragile situation of the region's banking system and a potential messy Greek exit from the single currency bloc, the euro is poised to chalk up its biggest weekly loss since the first week of April.

Macro funds and real money investors have ramped up selling of the currency, which is now down more than 5 percent in May, as concerns about Greece leaving the zone rose after an inconclusive election that heightened the risk of its bankruptcy.

Greeks are voting again on June 17, with polls showing a close race between parties supporting and opposing terms of the its international bailout, keeping markets on tenterhooks.

The euro fetched $1.2535, a stone's throw from $1.2516, its lowest level since July 2010 plumbed the day before. Against the yen, it recovered from a four-month trough of 99.37 yen to last stand at 99.90.

"The pace of the euro's fall has been very quick and the market is looking for a level to consolidate around - it may well be around 1.25," said Teppei Ino, currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

"U.S. markets are closed on Monday, and that too is likely to prevent traders from any excessive risk-taking," Ino said.

But with the euro zone economy in dire straits and its politicians openly talking about a Greek exit, traders said that the common currency would sooner or later have to yield to the pressure and pierce the nearest support at $1.2500.

A break of that level would target the June 2010 low of $1.1876 with not much in the way of technical support this side of $1.2000. For now, traders cite a formidable option barrier at $1.2500 with large stop-loss orders looming around $1.2480.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Global manufacturing PMIs: link.reuters.com/byv24s

German IFO and GDP: link.reuters.com/bum65s

Asset performance since Greek elections:

link.reuters.com/keh38s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

DARKENING PICTURE

Darkening the picture further, European Central Bank data showed 35.4 billion euros of net direct portfolio investment flowed out of the euro zone in March, as investors shunned the region's assets.

Investor skittishness is well-reflected in the options market, where euro/dollar one-month at-the-money implied volatility spiked to 13.13 percent, its highest in more than four months.

With the euro on the backfoot, the dollar has been the big winner with its index against a basket of major currencies edging up to 82.411, its highest since September 2010.

Against the yen, the greenback was 0.1 percent higher at 79.67 yen, supported by Tokyo importers and short-covering ahead of the long weekend in the United States. Sell offers around 80.00 yen are poised to cap any further gains, traders say.

The dollar muscled in on the Korean won 0.2 percent to 1,183.2 won, at one point pushing it to the lowest level since October last year, and 0.5 percent on Indonesian rupiah, pressuring it to 9,300 - the lowest level since May 2010.

"The rupiah is really taking the beating today. More than repatriation by European banks, I think this is a simple 'risk off' move as investors look for safety in the dollar," said a trader for a Japanese bank.

The move is reminiscent of September 2011 when emerging market positions were slashed en masse as investors lowered their exposure to the region's bonds -- an asset class that has until now been resilient to swirling global risks.

Barclays Capital said in a report citing EPFR Global data that in the week to May 23, emerging markets-dedicated bond funds saw $478 million in net outflows, the first net redemptions in 19 weeks. (Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo and Masayuki Kitano in Singapore; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)



Diablo 3's real-money auction house delayed again - CVG Online

The launch of Diablo 3's real-money auction house has been delayed again.

Diablo 3 Screenshot
It was initially expected to launch on May 22, then May 29, but will now miss this month entirely.

"In light of the post-launch obstacles we've encountered, we have made the decision to move the launch of the real-money auction house beyond the previously estimated May time frame," Blizzard said on the Diablo forums.

"As we mentioned in our original announcement, our goal has always been to ensure everyone has the smoothest experience possible when the real-money auction house launches, and we need a bit more time to iron out the existing general stability and gameplay issues before that feature goes live.

"While we don't have a new launch date to share just yet, we'll have more information soon."

Blizzard also issued a lengthy statement addressing a number of post-launch issues players have encountered with Diablo 3, most notably the hacking of user accounts.

Earlier this week Activision Blizzard announced that Diablo 3 had become the fastest-selling PC game ever after shifting 3.5 million copies in its first 24 hours of availability.

If you haven't already, why not check out our Diablo 3 review and our Diablo 3 guide, which features 30 essential tips and tricks every dungeon crawler should know.


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