BRUSSELS |
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers are scheduled to hold a teleconference on Sunday evening to discuss the outcome of Greek elections, two euro zone officials said on Thursday.
Greece holds a parliamentary election on Sunday and polls show that the leftist SYRIZA party, that rejects the terms of the euro zone bailout for Athens, is neck-and-neck with the pro-bailout New Democracy party.
If STRIZA won the election and Greece were to tear up the terms of the bailout, France and other euro zone countries have warned that Greece could face leaving the euro zone and returning to the drachma currency.
One euro zone official said that the main concern, if SYRIZA overwhelmingly won the election, was the risk of large capital outflows from Greece if depositors worry their savings in euros could later be frozen or converted into drachmas.
"It is not even about a bank run on Monday morning after the elections. People can now log on to internet banking and make transfers on Sunday evening as well," a third euro zone official said, explaining the rationale of the ministerial call.
If a SYRIZA victory sparked panic about a return of the drachma, the immediate action would come from the country's central bank, backed by the European Central Bank.
The Greek central bank has the ability to directly inject cash into the country's banks, if savers rush for their money, in the form of Emergency Liquidity Assistance, which although provided by the ECB, would be underwritten solely by Greece.
Top ECB officials and staff would also keep a close watch from Frankfurt and keep in touch with other euro zone central banks, in case there were signs that people in other countries such as Spain were starting to pull their cash from banks.
Among the euro zone contingency plans for a possible Greek exit from the euro are the suspension of the Schengen passport-free zone and imposing capital controls and limiting ATM withdrawals.
(Reporting By Jan Strupczewski in Brussels and Andreas Framke in Berlin, editing by Diana Abdallah)
Forex focus: European unity may lie ahead – but for how many? - Daily Telegraph
As HiFX’s Chris Towner says: “Germany is being forced into a corner where it is they who will need to start to give up if they would like Europe to become more unified. The Spanish finance minister is right to say that the battle for the euro will be waged in Spain, but it will be decided in Germany.”
Eurosceptics suspect Germany will use the crisis to usher in a United States of Europe.
“Is there a hidden German agenda? Probably not,” answers Charles Purdy of Smart Currency Exchange. “They have always thought and made clear that greater fiscal unity is a must for the euro – ensuring that each country adopts their fiscal discipline. Up to now the political will has been lacking but if the euro is to survive and the 'weaker’ countries are to benefit from Germany’s strong credit rating then fiscal union will be what Germany expects.”
World First’s chief economist Jeremy Cook believes greater unification will take decades, saying: “Fiscal union is the endgame for the eurozone – a United States of Europe that has centralised fiscal and monetary policy and leadership based from one location. This will take years to set up and will only follow a huge upheaval of the European political landscape.”
However, while the consensus view is that the eurozone will bind closer together, this doesn’t mean that all 17 members will remain in the club.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that some nations can’t remain in the eurozone,” says Richard Driver of Caxton FX. “A stronger eurozone with a fiscal union is the only way the eurozone can survive but this won’t come soon enough for Greece.”
Stephen Hughes of Currencies.co.uk is sceptical, saying, “As a growing number of voices call for greater fiscal union across the eurozone, it’s still by no means a given that this is an achievable path – don’t forget that even the German people have yet to ratify the fiscal compact.
“But, given the depth of the current euro crisis, we are likely to see a more accommodating stance from policymakers in the coming months. What is clear is that any move to greater unity will take time to implement, something Greece certainly doesn’t have. As for Spain, Portugal and Ireland, the jury’s out for them...”
Debt crisis: ECB last hope as dam breaks in Spain - Daily Telegraph
Spain is caught in a vicious downward spiral as the property crash accelerates, further undermining the banks and state finances. This in turn is drawing Italy into the fire and threatens to overwhelm the EU's rescue machinery.
"We must have a real circuit breaker," said Sondergaard. "The question is whether the ECB will now blink and go down the route of quantitative easing (QE)".
He said the ECB should slash interest rates by half a point to 0.5pc and "pre-commit" to half a trillion euros of QE over coming months, blanketing the Spanish and Italian bond markets.
Nomura said the ECB must act with overwhelming force rather than engaging in piecemeal bond purchases that fail to restore confidence and have the toxic side-effects of pushing existing bondholders down the credit ladder -- the dreaded effect of "subordination".
"The eurozone has the wrong policy mix across the board. Fiscal policy is too tight; monetary policy is too tight; and the tough regulation of the banks is coming at the wrong time. Together it is all pushing the eurozone to breaking point," he said.
Spanish premier Mariano Rajoy said in a private letter to EU leaders last week that the ECB is the only body with firepower and nimbleness able to contain the crisis at this point.
The pleas have so far fallen on deaf ears in Frankfurt where ECB hawks insist that any such intervention to help EMU's struggling debtors would reduce the pressure for root-and-branch reforms.
The bank said in its June report on Thursday that Spain must make further draconian cuts to meet its deficit target of 3pc of GDP next year. It enraged monetarists by denying yet again that the eurozone faces a serious monetary slowdown or "an abrupt and disorderly adjustment" for banks -- or a credit crunch in layman's language.
"It shows fantastic complacency. They are not complying with their own mandate," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. Critics say that all key measures of the eurozone money supply are now contracting, pushing the whole region into deeper slump. The ECB has missed its 4.5pc growth target for M3 `broad money" by a wide margin.
Mr Spiro said the fast-escalating crisis in Italy may force the ECB to act. Foreigners own half Italy's €2 trillion public debt and they are increasingly shocked by the failure of the EU authorities to halt contagion. "Foreigners haven't been buying Italian bonds, but most have not been selling either. The risk is that they will now start selling en masse," he said.
"Italian banks are under massive financial repression to buy the debt but they are running out of money. The ECB will have to act but it has lost so much credbility already that it will have to buy on a massive scale to make a scrap of difference."
The ECB has already bought over €200bn of Italian, Spanish, Greek, Irish, and Portuguese bonds, justifying it as necessary to ensure the proper "transmission" of monetary policy. The move caused a storm in Germany, prompting the resignation to both German members of the ECB board last year. A chorus of economists have exhorted the ECB to cap Spanish and Italian yields at 5pc or so by pledging unlimited intervention. Yet such a naked rescue of insolvent states would trigger legal challenges in the courts for breach of the EU's no-bailout clause.
Professor Paul De Graue from the London School of Economics said the bank should go ahead anyway and "let the lawyers argue about it for the next ten years."
There are no such constraints on outright QE or money printing by the ECB, in extremis. Monetarists say the bank should buy the bonds of all EMU states to lift the entire region and prevent debt-deflation taking hold in the South.
Fresh data yesterday shows how desperate the crisis is becoming in Spain. The property crash is accelerating. House prices fell at a 12.6pc rate in the first quarter of this year, compared to 11.2pc the quarter before, and 7.4pc in the quarter before that. Prices have fallen 26pc from their peak.
"Fundamentals point to a further 25pc decline," said Standard & Poor's in a report on Thursday. It may take another four years to clear a glut of one million homes left from the building boom.
Mrs Merkel chided the country gently yesterday for letting a "property bubble" spin out of control in the boom years. Her words prompted a furious reaction from Madrid.
Foreign minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo said Spain itself was the victim, flooded with cheap capital from northern European banks. "It is true that Spain and some other countries lived beyond their means but that was because banks from the core made lots of money investing here," he said.
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