FOREX-Euro inches up, but hopes dashed for EU summit - Reuters UK FOREX-Euro inches up, but hopes dashed for EU summit - Reuters UK

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

FOREX-Euro inches up, but hopes dashed for EU summit - Reuters UK

FOREX-Euro inches up, but hopes dashed for EU summit - Reuters UK

Wed Jun 27, 2012 5:18am BST

* Merkel digs in against euro zone bonds

* Euro inches away from previous day's 2-week low

* Investors undecided on yen impact from Japan politics-analyst (Updates levels, adds comments)

By Masayuki Kitano

TOKYO, June 27 (Reuters) - The euro inched higher on Wednesday after hitting a two-week low the previous day, but gains were halted by the dashing of hopes that a European summit could deliver concrete measures to ease the region's debt crisis.

A quick move toward the issuance of common euro-zone bonds was highly unlikely after German Chancellor Angela Merkel was quoted as saying Europe would not share total debt liability "as long as I live."

The European Union summit on Thursday and Friday is unlikely to alter the single currency's downtrend, said Daisuke Karakama, market economist for Mizuho Corporate Bank in Tokyo.

"I think the euro could see a break below $1.20 by year-end," Karakama said. "I'm focusing more on just how far it might go if it drops below $1.20," he added.

The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.2503 and stayed above Tuesday's trough of $1.24413 on trading platform EBS, which was the euro's lowest level since June 8.

The next major downside target is a two-year low of $1.2288 hit on June 1.

"Since short positions have piled up, the euro could rise sharply at some point, but I think you have to be careful not to be fooled by such a move," Mizuho Corporate Bank's Karakama said.

In addition to Merkel's comments, the euro had come under pressure the previous day after Spanish bond yields rose as demand at a bill sale fell despite the significantly higher returns on offer to investors.

Against the yen, the euro held steady at 99.34 yen , having hit a two-week low of 98.74 yen on Tuesday.

JAPANESE POLITICS

The dollar dipped 0.1 percent to 79.44 yen, well below a two-month high of 80.63 yen hit earlier this week.

The yen held its ground although some market players say political uncertainty because of a rift inside Japan's ruling party may weigh on the currency.

Gareth Berry, associate director of G10 FX strategy for UBS in Singapore, said investors outside of Japan so far seemed unsure about how Japanese politics might affect the yen.

"I guess international investors have been burned so many times by trying to trade dollar/yen around Japanese political events," Berry said.

"They are happy to watch the story unfold but unwilling to take positions, in FX at least," he added.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda faces the risk of a split in his party that could trigger a snap election after his signature tax-increase plan cleared parliament's lower house on Tuesday despite its rejection by a group of party rebels.

The plan to double the sales tax to 10 percent over three years is seen as a first step towards curbing Japan's snowballing public debt, which already exceeds two years' worth of its economic output.

Neither Japanese politics nor the passage of the tax increase through the lower house of parliament are likely to be major drivers of the yen's moves, said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore.

"I think the European situation and issues related to investors' risk tolerance are far bigger factors," Okagawa said. (Editing by Richard Borsuk)



FOREX-Euro near 2-week low as EU summit hopes fade - Reuters

Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:12am EDT

* Euro undermined by receding hopes on EU summit

* For now support for euro/dlr seen around $1.2443

* Yen off 2-month low, ponders if Noda can stay on

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, June 26 (Reuters) - The euro was on the defensive near a two-week low against the dollar on Tuesday on growing worries that an upcoming European summit would produce nothing to solve the region's debt crisis.

The broad risk-averse mood helped to lift the Japanese yen sharply from a two-month low against the dollar, though the currency could be hit by political uncertainty in Tokyo as Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda faces a revolt against his tax hike plan.

The euro fell to as low as $1.24713 on Monday, its lowest since June 12 and last stood at $1.2507, almost flat from late U.S. levels.

Support was seen near the June 12 low around $1.2443, at and below which sizable bids were detected, though a break below that level would open the door to a test of the two-year low of $1.2288 hit on June 1.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel dashed any lingering hope in financial markets on Monday that Europe would issue common euro zone bonds to help indebted countries, calling such an idea "economically wrong" and "counterproductive."

Greece's new finance minister resigned on Monday due to ill health, throwing the government's drive to soften the terms of an international bailout into confusion, while Prime Minister Antonis Samaras had said he was not attending the summit, having just emerged from hospital himself after eye surgery.

Cyprus became the fifth euro zone country to turn to Brussels for help, a move that highlights Europe's failure to contain the ever-deepening debt crisis, even though its economic impact would be negligible given the size of the country's economy.

And Spain formally requested euro zone rescue loans for up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion) to recapitalise its debt-laden banks, though it said the final amount of financial assistance would be set later.

All of these served to quash hopes that European policymakers would come up with solid measures to deal with the ongoing crisis at its June 28-29 summit that is now threatening not just Spain but Italy, the bloc's third-largest economy.

"Yesterday in Asia, people were saying they would wait for the summit. But it's becoming almost pointless to wait for it," said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

The euro also fell below 100 yen to fetch 99.72 yen , having dropped more than 1 percent on Monday after having failed to break a 38.2 percent retracement of its March-May decline at 101.64 last week.

A daily close below near-term trendline support at 99.51 will indicate its corrective rebound so far this month is coming to an end, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said.

SHOWDOWN IN TOKYO

The dollar also fell more than a full cent to 79.55 yen from a two-month high of 80.63 yen hit on Monday, failing to stay above a key chart level from the top of weekly Ichimoku cloud at 80.41, in one bearish sign.

Strong resistance prompted some hedge funds that had built yen short positions on speculation about more easing by the Bank of Japan are giving up on their bets, said a U.S. bank trader.

Some market players think the yen could come under pressure if a large number of ruling party lawmakers revolt against Noda's tax hike plan, which could force him to call an early election.

Noda looks certain to win parliament's approval for his signature tax hike plan, thanks to support from the two main opposition parties.

But with a number of ruling party lawmakers threatening to vote against the bills and to leave his Democratic Party of Japan, he is facing risk of losing a parliamentary majority, which could lead to an early election.



FOREX-Euro undermined by low expectations for EU summit - Yahoo! Eurosport

(Adds quotes, details)

* Euro undermined by receding hopes on EU summit

* Hits 2-week low vs yen, near 4-week low vs sterling

* Spain's short-term borrowing costs leap at auction

* Yen firm, but political uncertainty in Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) may weigh

LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) - The euro hit a two-week low against the yen and a near-four-week low against the British pound on Tuesday, hurt by rising peripheral euro zone bond yields and expectations a European summit would achieve little to help resolve the region's crisis.

The prospect of a quick move towards a banking union or issuance of common euro zone bonds looked increasingly unlikely, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel describing moves to share debt liability as "counter productive".

Low expectations for the summit, which takes place on Thursday and Friday, may make the euro less vulnerable to a sell-off, analysts said. But a rally following any unexpected positive outcome would merely provide an opportunity to sell.

The euro zone's debt problems showed no signs of abating, with Spain formally requesting aid for its banking sector on Monday, while Cyprus has become the fifth euro zone country to request help.

"There is increasing pessimism as to whether any degree of substantive action will be agreed at the summit. The most encouraging thing is that no one has any expectations, but that's as good as it can get," said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at CIBC.

"If there is any positive reaction I suspect it will be a case that the devil is in the detail and any rallies will be sold into." He added he expected the euro to drop towards $1.23 over the coming weeks.

Underscoring the funding difficulties facing Spain, the country's short-term borrowing costs nearly tripled at an auction on Tuesday, further encouraging investors to push the euro lower.

The euro dipped 0.1 percent against the dollar to $1.2495, pinned close to a two-week low of $1.24713. Traders cited selling by macro funds at higher levels and reported offers from sovereign investors above $1.2530.

Against the yen it lost around 0.5 percent to hit 98.916 yen on EBS trading platform, its weakest since mid-June, while against sterling it dropped to 79.875 pence, its lowest since the end of May.

"There are vague proposals on the table for discussion towards a closer fiscal union but frankly it is tough to see anything concrete coming out of the summit," said Chris Walker, currency strategist at UBS (NYSEArca: DJCI - news) .

"Given the markets are already bearish on the euro, there is a risk of a short squeeze, but that would be a good opportunity to sell the euro."

The euro has support against the dollar at the June 12 low around $1.2443, but a break below there could open the door to a test of the two-year low of $1.2288 hit on June 1.

UBS said scepticism about the euro was reflected in the bank's latest flow monitor, which showed their clients continued to add to short euro positions last week, while overseas investors offloaded a net $2 billion worth of euro-denominated equities, the most since July 2008.

SHOWDOWN IN TOKYO

The risk of disappointment from another euro zone summit and risk aversion supported the Japanese yen and helped it pull away from a two-month low against the dollar.

But the currency could struggle as political uncertainty gripped Japan. Japan's lower house approved a plan to double the sales tax to help curb the nation's snowballing debt, although the vote split the ruling Democratic Party.

The dollar was down 0.3 percent at 79.39 yen, off a two-month high of 80.63 yen struck on Monday.

"The threat of heightened political uncertainty may weigh upon the yen in the near-term although it is more likely to be offset by ongoing negative developments in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) which are still fuelling safe haven demand for the yen," Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi wrote in a note.

Some market players think the yen may come under pressure if a large number of ruling party lawmakers revolt against Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's tax hike plan, which could force him to call an early election. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag; editing by Ron Askew)



Forex Flash: ECB expected to cut rates and to implement ZIRP next week - BBH - NASDAQ

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The ECB meets next Thursday, July 5 and even though "a few members wanted to cut rates earlier this month, they did not represent a majority", says Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH. "Expectations are running high for some action next week".

"The ECB did announce last week a relaxation of collateral standards and a liberalization of criteria. We have suggested this should be understood as just as important, if not more so, than a rate cut itself", says the analyst. "Given financial crisis, access to credit is critical and, within reason, is important than the price (or interest rate)".

"We expect the ECB to cut the refi rate 25 bp next week", he adds. "At the same time, it will reduce the deposit rate to zero. Until recently, there seemed to be a reluctance to cut the deposit rate, which is the rate that the ECB pays to banks on their reserve holdings. However, as the crisis deepened, a few officials have intimated that is not longer the obstacle it once may have been".

On the other hand, BBH analysts think it is unlikely the ECB announces another LTRO or the resumption of the bank's sovereign bond support program ( SMP ), as "the overwhelming majority of the ECB are concerned that in the current context, ECB bond purchases would blur the distinction of monetary and fiscal policy", says Chandler.



Forex Flash: EUR/JPY with temporary negative outlook – MIG Bank - FXStreet.com
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  • Forex Trading: MahiFX Releases Infographic on Top Trader Styles and Strategies - YAHOO!

    MahiFX Infographic “What Forex trading style suits you?” examines Position, Technical, Day, Trend, Carry, Scalping and Mean Reversion trading strategies

    London (PRWEB UK) 26 June 2012

    MahiFX, the proprietary-built retail foreign exchange (Forex/FX) trading platform, released a Forex Trading Styles Infographic today examining the seven key trading strategies employed by FX traders: Position, Technical, Day, Trend, Carry, Scalping and Mean Reversion.

    Titled “What Forex Trading Style Suits You?” the new Infographic examines the differing strategies employed by famous traders ranging from Warren Buffet and George Soros to Paul Rotter, aka The Flipper. The Infographic offers a visually appealing, detailed informational tool for FX traders of all ability levels to better understand sophisticated trading strategies and how to exploit currency market movements.

    “With this Infographic we have created not just a collection of interesting, fast forex-related facts, but also a visually engaging and entertaining resource for anyone interested in the heritage and skills associated with FX trading,” says David Cooney, CEO of MahiFX. “By illustrating the strategies employed by some world-famous traders, we also hope to highlight to the FX community that MahiFX offers an ever expanding package of educational and technical analysis tools and charting features necessary to employ their differing trading strategies.”

    Developed by ex-interbank traders, analysts and developers, MahiFX is headed by David Cooney, former global co-head of currency options and e-FX trading at Barclays Capital and Susan Cooney, former head of electronic FX institutional sales in Europe for Barclays Capital. Operating as a market maker, MahiFX provides institutional level pricing and cutting edge technology to retail FX traders.

    MahiFX previously released an acclaimed HTML5 interactive Infographic tool inviting landing page visitors to compare their annual income with super-trader John Paulson, who is said to earn in excess of $500,000 (2010) per hour.

    To tweet this news, copy and paste: What forex trading style suits you? View the MahiFX Infographic at: https://mahifx.com/what-forex-trading-style-suits-you to your twitter handle with suggested hashtags #Forex #FX #trading #Infographic

    To view this press release online please visit the MahiFX website media area.


    • ENDS-

    Notes for Editors:

    About MahiFX


    MahiFX launched its new proprietary-built browser-based foreign exchange (Forex) trading platform in February 2012.

    Developed by a team of ex-interbank traders, analysts, statisticians and developers, MahiFX is headed by David Cooney, former global co-head of currency options and e-FX trading at Barclays Capital and responsible for the award winning e-commerce platform BARX and Susan Cooney, former head of electronic FX institutional sales in Europe for Barclays Capital.

    MahiFX operates as a market maker and provides retail FX customers access to the same tight spreads and cutting edge technology as institutional FX traders. Prices are tradeable – there are no ‘from’ prices, hidden costs, slippage, re-quotes or minimum trade sizes.

    MahiFX global operations are headquartered in Christchurch, New Zealand with offices in London. The company has dedicated development and support teams in both locations for 24 hour service. MahiFX is regulated by The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), Australia’s corporate, markets and financial services regulator.

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    Michele McDermott-Fox


    The Top Floor


    T: +44.1625.502545 | M: + 44.7729.501.369 | E: michele(at)thetopflooragency(dot)com

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    The Top Floor Agency
    +44 (0)7729 501 369
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