* Central banks' liquidity pledge reassures investors
* Soft U.S. data keeps speculation of Fed easing alive
* Yen broadly gains after BOJ stays on hold
By Anirban Nag
LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - The euro hovered below three-week highs against the dollar on Friday, holding steady on expectations that global central banks will step in to counter any adverse fallout from Sunday's election in Greece.
G20 officials told Reuters that central banks from major economies stand ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the Greek election result roils markets.
A coordinated action is likely to support risk appetite and provide relief to the euro although any bounce could prove temporary given Spain's elevated borrowing costs and the risk of contagion to Italy, the euro zone's third largest economy.
The dollar was also under pressure on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve may resort to further monetary easing after labour market data disappointed and consumer prices fell in May.
The euro dipped 0.1 percent on the day to $1.2619, still within sight of Monday's three-week high of $1.2672, struck after a 100 billion euro aid package for Spanish banks was agreed at the weekend. The dollar index fell to a three-week low of 81.703 against a basket of currencies.
Much of how the euro will trade in the near term depends on the outcome of the Greek election on Sunday. Traders cited offers to sell above $1.2660 up to $1.2670 while option expiries were cited at $1.2600.
"Investors will be reluctant to hold any meaningful positions either way going into the weekend," said Ankita Dudani, G10 currency strategist at RBS.
"The euro has come back from highs around $1.2650 and the only reason it will hold above $1.2500 is because of the extreme bearish positions and hopes of coordinated central bank action."
Hopes for more policy steps by major central banks were heightened after the UK government and the Bank of England unveiled a 100 billion pound ($155 billion) funding scheme for banks to boost credit on Thursday.
Traders said the euro had scope to post short term gains if Greece's pro-bailout parties manage to win a majority in Sunday's election. In a scenario where the far-left anti-bailout parties win, the euro could drop towards near two-year lows of $1.2288 struck earlier this month.
The uncertainty was reflected in the options market, where both one-week and one-month implied volatilities traded at elevated levels of 16.50 percent and 12.65 respectively, up from around 9.8 percent and 11.55 percent at the end of last week.
BEARISH POSITIONS
In the past few weeks, speculators have added to very large bearish bets against the euro as many positioned for an eventual exit by Greece from the single currency and a possible spread of contagion to the bigger economies of Spain and Italy.
Spanish and Italian bond yields eased on Friday, but still remained near levels considered unsustainable to borrow from capital markets. The deteriorating situation in the euro zone has galvanised policymakers to consider taking action ahead of a G20 summit next week.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Friday the bank was ready to support euro zone banks, should it be required, while Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said central banks can offer liquidity to calm markets in case the weekend Greek elections heighten tension.
The dollar and euro came under pressure against the yen after the Bank of Japan announced no change in its monetary policy. Analysts said some investors may have positioned for a more dovish stance and were buying back the yen as a result.
"There were a few expectations the BoJ may have pre-empted any further Fed easing by deciding to expand their asset purchasing, so there is a little bit of disappointment this morning," said Michael Sneyd, FX strategist at BNP Paribas.
The dollar fell 0.8 percent to 78.77 yen, while the euro dropped 1 percent on the day to 99.10 yen.
Forex: USD/JPY finds bids at 78.80 - FXStreet.com
Daily Forex Update: USD/CAD - eltee.de
Euwax Trends: Anleger setzen auf Notenbank-Hilfe nach Griechenland-Wahl - Aktien auf dem Weg nach oben - bisher ruhiger Verfallstag
Brse Stuttgart - Indizes - 15.06.2012
Die ganz groe Angst vor den Wahlen in Griechenland am Sonntag scheint sich gelegt zu haben. Die Optionen, die der Markt derzeit durchspielt, lauten wie folgt: Erstens, die Euro-Befrworter unter Fhrung der Nea Dimokratia gewinnen. Dann wrden die Griechen die Sparauflagen anerkennen und vorerst im Euro bleiben. Zweitens, das Linksbndnis und damit die Gegner der Sparauflagen setzen sich durch. Fr diesen Fall deutet sich an, dass die Notenbanken am Montag fr eine konzertierte Aktion bereit stehen, in der sie die Banken und Finanzmrkte mit ausreichender Liquiditt versorgen. ... mehr
ETX Capital: Der Fahrplan zur Euro-Union
O. Bossmann I ETX Capital - Forex - 15.06.2012
Der Countdown fr die europischen Politiker luft und die Erwartungen der europischen Brger und nicht minder der Mrkte scheinen klar zu sein, in den nchsten Wochen sollte eine nachhaltige Vision fr den Euro geschaffen werden.
Nach der Herabstufung der Bonitt Spaniens durch Moodys von A3 auf Baa3 diese Woche notieren spanische Staatsanleihen mit einer Laufzeit von zehn Jahren nahe der sieben Prozent Marke. Mit diesem Kredit Rating befinden sich spanische Staatsanleihen, zumindest aus Sicht von Moodys, auf der letzten Stufe vor dem sogenannten Junk Status. ... mehr
Dax klettert im frhen Handel - Freundliche US-Vorgaben aus bersee sttzen
IG Markets Research - Indizes - 15.06.2012
Der deutsche Aktienmarkt startet im Windschatten positiver Vorgaben mit einem Plus in den Wochenausklang. Trotz wieder mal enttuschender Arbeitsmarktdaten, verlieen die US Aktienindizes den gestrigen Handel in der Gewinnzone. Denn gerade solch maue Konjunkturdaten knnten die US Notenbank Fed dazu animieren, die schleppende Wirtschaftserholung mit einer neuerlichen Ausweitung ihrer expanisven Geldpolitik zu sttzen. Und genau darauf scheint der Markt derzeit zu spekulieren. ... mehr
4x Report: Aktienmrkte im Vorfeld der Griechenland-Wahl abwartend - Schweizer Bankenwerte im Minus
Brse Stuttgart - Indizes - 15.06.2012
Marktbericht der Brse Stuttgart - Auslandsaktien KW 24 (11.06. bis 15.06.2012)
Die US-Brsen tendierten in der Berichtswoche seitwrts. Im Vorfeld der Griechenlandwahl am kommenden Wochenende bewegte sich der Dow-Jones-Index um die 12.500-Punkte-Marke, der Nasdaq Composite lag bei 2.800 Punkten und der S&P 500 pendelte sich bei 1.320 Punkten ein. Der Goldpreis konnte mit Blick auf Griechenland und Europa knapp zwei Prozent zulegen und verteidigt nun die Marke von 1.600 US-Dollar. Auch der Silberpreis zog um zwei Prozent an und notiert nun bei 29 US-Dollar. ... mehr
Forex Update - Anleger spekulieren vorsichtig auf einen positiven Ausgang der Wahlen in Griechenland
IG Markets Research - Forex - 15.06.2012
Marktteilnehmer am Devisenmarkt erwarten mit Spannung die anstehenden Wahlen in Griechenland. Gestern stiegen die Aktien griechischer Bankaktien um knapp 20 Prozent. Laut Reuters-Berichten waren der Grund fr diesen Anstieg Marktgerchte, dass Sparbefrworter die Wahl am 17. Juni gewinnen werden.
Die Europische Zentralbank und andere Zentralbanken halten sich mit weiteren Geldspritzen bereit, um bei einem Sieg der linksradikalen Syriza Sttzungsmanahmen ergreifen zu knnen. ... mehr
Aktienindizes: Verzaubern die Hexen den DAX zum Wochenschluss?
Jens Klatt I FXCM - Indizes - 15.06.2012
Der deutsche Leitindex stellte sich auch am gestrigen Handelstag sehr choppy dar. Der Handel kann durchaus als richtungs- und impulslos klassifiziert werden, was allerdings vor dem Hintergrund des groen Verfalls an der EUREX heute ("Hexensabbat") keine wirkliche berraschung darstellt. Wenn man sich die unteren Zeitebenen genauer betrachtet fllt auf, dass der DAX seit Dienstag in einer Range zwischen 6.220 und 6.080 Punkten tradet. So ging es dann auch am gestrigen Handelstag in eben dieser Range aus dem Handel. Zum Ende der US-Handelssitzung notierte der DAX bei 6.140 Punkten. ... mehr
Devsienkommentar: EUR/USD - Der Euro bleibt kurzfristig Long, Attacke auf das Wochenhoch zum Wochenschluss?
Jens Klatt I FXCM - Forex - 15.06.2012
Es bleibt dabei und der gestrige Handelstag hat es besttigt: der EUR/USD bleibt kurzfristig auf 4-Stundenbasis Long. Das Whrungspaar tradet weiter in seinem Aufwrtstrendkanal (trkis). Wie bereits am gestrigen Handelstag erwartet, war der Weg mit dem berwinden der 1,2570er Marke der Weg in Richtung 1,2600 USD geebnet. Mit den positiven Vorgaben von der Wallstreet nahm der EUR/USD infolgedessen Fahrt auf und attackierte das Hoch von Mittwoch bei 1,2610 US-Dollar. ... mehr
Dax Future - trading-notes [futures] 15.06.2012
trading-house.net - Indizes - 15.06.2012
Einen Tag vor dem Verfallstag bewegte sich der Future wie erwartet erst mal nach der Erffnung runter, danach folgten kurze Aufwrtsbewegungen, die genauso schnell wieder zu ende waren. Am Nachmittag fand er seinen Boden bei 6.090 Punkten und startete von hier aus eine Erholungsrallye von 60 Punkten, angetrieben von den US-Brsen. Der Handelstag war ein typischer Vorverfallstag und drfte er erste Indikator fr den heutigen Tag geben. Am Ende schloss er bei 6.145 Punkten ein Plus 0,2 Prozent. ... mehr
Forex - Im Vorfeld der griechischen Parlamentswahlen handelt der EUR in einer engen Handelsspanne
Forexyard Research - Forex - 15.06.2012
Trotz steigender spanischer und italienischer Anleihen-Renditen, die viele Analysten zum Anlass nahmen zu prognostizieren der Euro wrde sich zu seinen Haupt-Whrungsrivalen rcklufig verhalten, verzeichnete die Gemeinschaftswhrung beim gestrigen Handel kaum nennenswerte Bewegungen. Whrend wir aufs Wochenende zugehen, sollten Euro-Hndler besonders den Bekanntmachungen aus Griechenland Aufmerksamkeit schenken, die Aufschluss darber geben knnten, welche der politischen Parteien bei der Wahl am Sonntag als Sieger hervorgehen drften. ... mehr
Technische News Devisen vom 15.06.2012
Forexyard Research - Forex - 15.06.2012
EUR/USD
Whrend sich die Bollinger Bands auf dem Tages-Chart verengen, was darauf hindeutet, dass in nchster Zeit eine Kursbewegung erfolgen knnte, zeigen die meisten anderen technischen Indikatoren, dass sich diese Paarung im neutralen Bereich bewegt. Eine abwartende Haltung einzunehmen drfte sich fr Hndler als beste Vorgehensweise erweisen.
GBP/USD ... mehr
Throwing money at banks won't solve economic crisis, Ed Balls says - The Guardian
Ed Balls has warned that an emergency multibillion-pound package to inject lending into the British economy still fails to address the lack of economic confidence and demand. The shadow chancellor said the Bank of England's thinking still seemed to be driven by Montagu Norman, the governor who led it through the depression of the 1930s.
He said the measures announced on Thursday night at the Mansion House in London by the chancellor, George Osborne, and the bank's governor, Mervyn King, should have been implemented two years ago and would not work if businesses were not investing.
Osborne warned that the "debt storm" on the continent had left the UK and the rest of Europe facing their most serious economic crisis outside wartime. In a joint proposal between the Bank of England and the Treasury, banks will receive cut-price funds, provided they pass on the benefits to their business customers.
This new "funding for lending" scheme could provide an £80bn boost to loans to the private sector within weeks and alleviate growing fears of a second slump since the start of the financial crisis in 2007.
In a second scheme, within the next few days the bank will begin pumping a minimum of £5bn a month into City institutions to improve their liquidity.
Balls told Sky News: "Simply giving the banks billions of pounds doesn't translate into loans to business. If business is not investing and creating jobs and if our economy is not growing, that's the fundamental problem, and I've said consistently for two years that you can't do this simply by throwing money at the banks.
"You've got to accept that the fiscal plans of the chancellor haven't worked, they've backfired, they've taken us back into recession."
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Balls compared the government's fiscal policy to the 1930s depression era: "It failed then and it's failing now".
He said the announcements were a clear sign that the bank was worried. He did not dismiss the injection of cash for lending in principle, but argued that fiscal, as opposed to monetary policy was critical to recovery, pointing out that, apart from Italy, the UK was the only country in the G20 in recession.
The government has described the plans as an attempt to stretch its "plan A" to the limit. There has been concern from some banks that the plan does not change the dynamic as they will be expected to take the risk on the loans.
The treasury minister Mark Hoban told Today that the government's fiscal tightening had had no impact on growth. He said taxpayers' money would not be at risk as a result of the £80bn bank credit scheme.
Conservative MP Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the Commons treasury select committee, welcomed the plans: "The measures look as if they will encourage lending to businesses by ensuring liquidity is more easily available to banks."
Balls said: "The Bank of England's new funding for lending scheme is a significant admission that the government's existing policies have failed. Businesses will be desperately hoping it is more successful than George Osborne's Project Merlin and credit-easing schemes which have actually seen net lending to businesses fall."
He said Osborne's speech was dangerously complacent. "He is sticking with policies that have choked off the recovery, pushed up unemployment and are leading to £150bn of extra borrowing."
Balls also attacked Osborne over his remarks about a possible Greek exit from the eurozone.
"I was at the Mansion House last night and there was a frisson around the room when our chancellor started openly talking about whether Greece should leave the eurozone. I do not think that is a very wise or sensible thing to do," he told BBC Breakfast.
"I think Greece has got to sort out its issues – and that is a matter for Greece. What I am really worried about in the eurozone is that countries like Spain or Italy – which are huge, to which we as a country are very exposed – they have not sorted out their problems.
"Unless we get a global growth plan going, including in the eurozone, you can't turn this round. I am afraid that our government seems to be urging the wrong actions in Europe as it takes the wrong actions here in Britain too."
The shadow chancellor pointed out that Osborne had "snuck out another U-turn" in his speech, in particular to the objectives of the new financial policy committee at the bank.
"Labour and business organisations like the CBI have been calling for the new financial policy committee to have supporting economic growth as one of its key objectives. The chancellor voted against our amendment on this but in the face of an imminent defeat in the House of Lords he has now backed down."
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