FOREX-Euro steady on expectations of central bank action - Reuters FOREX-Euro steady on expectations of central bank action - Reuters

Friday, June 15, 2012

FOREX-Euro steady on expectations of central bank action - Reuters

FOREX-Euro steady on expectations of central bank action - Reuters

Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:26am EDT

* Central banks' liquidity pledge reassures investors

* Soft U.S. data keeps speculation of Fed easing alive

* Yen broadly gains after BOJ stays on hold

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - The euro hovered below three-week highs against the dollar on Friday, holding steady on expectations that global central banks will step in to counter any adverse fallout from Sunday's election in Greece. 

G20 officials told Reuters that central banks from major economies stand ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the Greek election result roils markets.

A coordinated action is likely to support risk appetite and provide relief to the euro although any bounce could prove temporary given Spain's elevated borrowing costs and the risk of contagion to Italy, the euro zone's third largest economy.

The dollar was also under pressure on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve may resort to further monetary easing after labour market data disappointed and consumer prices fell in May.

The euro dipped 0.1 percent on the day to $1.2619, still within sight of Monday's three-week high of $1.2672, struck after a 100 billion euro aid package for Spanish banks was agreed at the weekend. The dollar index fell to a three-week low of 81.703 against a basket of currencies.

Much of how the euro will trade in the near term depends on the outcome of the Greek election on Sunday. Traders cited offers to sell above $1.2660 up to $1.2670 while option expiries were cited at $1.2600.

"Investors will be reluctant to hold any meaningful positions either way going into the weekend," said Ankita Dudani, G10 currency strategist at RBS.

"The euro has come back from highs around $1.2650 and the only reason it will hold above $1.2500 is because of the extreme bearish positions and hopes of coordinated central bank action."

Hopes for more policy steps by major central banks were heightened after the UK government and the Bank of England unveiled a 100 billion pound ($155 billion) funding scheme for banks to boost credit on Thursday.

Traders said the euro had scope to post short term gains if Greece's pro-bailout parties manage to win a majority in Sunday's election. In a scenario where the far-left anti-bailout parties win, the euro could drop towards near two-year lows of $1.2288 struck earlier this month.

The uncertainty was reflected in the options market, where both one-week and one-month implied volatilities traded at elevated levels of 16.50 percent and 12.65 respectively, up from around 9.8 percent and 11.55 percent at the end of last week.

BEARISH POSITIONS

In the past few weeks, speculators have added to very large bearish bets against the euro as many positioned for an eventual exit by Greece from the single currency and a possible spread of contagion to the bigger economies of Spain and Italy.

Spanish and Italian bond yields eased on Friday, but still remained near levels considered unsustainable to borrow from capital markets. The deteriorating situation in the euro zone has galvanised policymakers to consider taking action ahead of a G20 summit next week.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Friday the bank was ready to support euro zone banks, should it be required, while Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said central banks can offer liquidity to calm markets in case the weekend Greek elections heighten tension.

The dollar and euro came under pressure against the yen after the Bank of Japan announced no change in its monetary policy. Analysts said some investors may have positioned for a more dovish stance and were buying back the yen as a result.

"There were a few expectations the BoJ may have pre-empted any further Fed easing by deciding to expand their asset purchasing, so there is a little bit of disappointment this morning," said Michael Sneyd, FX strategist at BNP Paribas.

The dollar fell 0.8 percent to 78.77 yen, while the euro dropped 1 percent on the day to 99.10 yen.



Forex Flash: Fed expected to hold on further easing - UBS - FXStreet.com
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Forex: GBP/USD rally approaches 1.57 - FXStreet.com
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WORLD FOREX: Eerie Calm Before Greek Elections; Sterling Stumbles - NASDAQ



-- Norwegian krone, Swedish krona and Japanese yen make last-minute safe-haven surge before Greek election weekend

-- Euro holds steady in nervous trading ahead of Greek elections

-- Sterling briefly dives as BOE launches fresh crisis-fighting liquidity measures

By Alexandra Fletcher

Sterling stole the show in early European trade in an otherwise quiet session ahead of the Greek elections, diving against other major currencies as the Bank of England announced a new liquidity facility to help shield the U.K. from euro-crisis fallout, fanning suspicions the central bank is preparing for a rate cut.

The pound shed some 0.3% against the dollar, trading to a low $1.5477 and the euro surged to the day's high of GBP0.8152 as London traders digested the news that the Bank of England will launch its first auction as part of a series of emergency liquidity measures that will offer six-month loans to U.K. banks in exchange for a wide range of collateral.

The announcement of the initiative has prompted expectations that the Bank of England might extend its asset purchasing program, or quantitative easing, at next month's monetary policy meeting, with Barclays--a prominent U.K. bank--shifting its view so that it now expects a boost to so-called QE at the central bank's July meeting.

Further fuelling sterling sellers, the BOE also signaled deepening gloom over the U.K. economy, and concern over euro- crisis fallout. In addition to the liquidity boost, it also kickstarted a new program to encourage banks' lending to businesses.

"The alarm [over the deepening of the euro-zone crisis] in official circles was evident in the new initiatives on bank support... It remains to be seen how effective these two measures will be, and in the meantime we believe there is a strong argument for augmenting them with more QE," said Simon Hayes, an economist at Barclays in London.

However, alarm bells didn't ring for long and sterling rebounded to levels seen overnight during Asian hours.

Elsewhere, the euro was trading steadily, holding onto some small overnight gains against the dollar ahead of the Greek elections this Sunday, the result of which could determine whether Greece stays in the euro zone or not.

Some investors were seeking out safe havens for their cash in advance of the vote that is seen as a referendum on Greece's membership of the common currency. The hunt for safety sent the Norwegian krone to a three-month high against the euro and the Swedish krona to the day's high. The Japanese yen also benefited from safe-haven flows, charging to a one-week high against the dollar.

Looking ahead, after a bad run of U.S. data Thursday, the U.S. June Empire State manufacturing survey is due at 1230 GMT, along with U.S. May industrial production data at 1315 GMT.

At 1005 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.2619 against the dollar, compared with $1.2633 late Thursday in New York, according to trading system EBS. The dollar was at Y78.68 against the yen, compared with Y79.35, while the euro was at Y99.29, compared with Y100.26. Meanwhile, the pound was trading at $1.5548 against the dollar, compared with $1.5563 late Thursday in New York. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, was at 81.786 from about 81.810.

-By Alexandra Fletcher, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0) 20 7842 9462, alexandra.fletcher@dowjones.com; @djfxtrader

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires   06-15-120734ET   Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 


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