FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The ECB meets next Thursday, July 5 and even though "a few members wanted to cut rates earlier this month, they did not represent a majority", says Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH. "Expectations are running high for some action next week".
"The ECB did announce last week a relaxation of collateral standards and a liberalization of criteria. We have suggested this should be understood as just as important, if not more so, than a rate cut itself", says the analyst. "Given financial crisis, access to credit is critical and, within reason, is important than the price (or interest rate)".
"We expect the ECB to cut the refi rate 25 bp next week", he adds. "At the same time, it will reduce the deposit rate to zero. Until recently, there seemed to be a reluctance to cut the deposit rate, which is the rate that the ECB pays to banks on their reserve holdings. However, as the crisis deepened, a few officials have intimated that is not longer the obstacle it once may have been".
On the other hand, BBH analysts think it is unlikely the ECB announces another LTRO or the resumption of the bank's sovereign bond support program ( SMP ), as "the overwhelming majority of the ECB are concerned that in the current context, ECB bond purchases would blur the distinction of monetary and fiscal policy", says Chandler.
MONEY MARKETS-Repo rates up on Twist, may ebb near term - Reuters
NEW YORK, June 26 |
NEW YORK, June 26 (Reuters) - The cost for banks to borrow short-term funds backed by Treasuries has been trending higher as the Federal Reserve's Operation Twist program adds to a surplus of short-end debt supply.
Analysts noted, however, that a number of other factors could stem the funding cost increases in coming weeks, at least temporarily.
The U.S. central bank said last week that it will extend the Twist program by another $267 billion, until the end of the year. Twist involves selling short-term notes to fund purchases of long-dated debt, in a bid to lower consumer borrowing costs.
This supply has flooded the short-term rates market and is likely to help to continue to drive up the cost of borrowing overnight funds using short-term Treasuries as collateral.
"The extension of Operation Twist will result in some continued pressure on repo rates on the margin because it's going to mean more competing supply in the front-end," said Brian Smedley, interest rate strategist at Bank of America in New York.
Average overnight rates in the interdealer market have increased to 22.5 basis points in the last month, and analysts see this likely to increase to the mid-20s level. The rate had traded at around 10 basis points last October.
Analysts at Barclays also attribute some of the rise in the rates to new, possibly lower-rated banks adding market share in the market as the Federal Reserve pressures the industry to reduce risks posed by the dominance of three large banks.
Other factors in the coming weeks could stem rate increases, however, even if only temporarily.
Some banks have been using repo to secure extra cash cushions in recent weeks as Greek elections and bank downgrades by Moody's Investors Service threatened new volatility. With these events now over, the banks may reduce these positions.
"In the last month or two it appears that some banks have built up a bit of an excess liquidity buffer leading up to the Greek elections and Moody's downgrades, and that has contributed to some upward pressure on repo rates," Smedley said.
"In the coming weeks we'll see if banks feel more comfortable trimming back that excess liquidity," he added.
Decreasing appetite heading into quarter-end at the end of this week could also reduce pressure in the market, adding to a temporary decline in rates.
Longer term, a deteriorating economy could push repo borrowing rates back down if the Fed launches new quantitative easing to further stimulate growth.
Some economists expect the Fed could launch a third round of easing, focused on purchases of mortgage-backed bonds as soon as its meeting in September.
FOREX-Euro falls to two-week lows as summit looms - Reuters
* Merkel says moves to share debt liability "counter productive"
* Spain's short-term borrowing costs leap at auction
* Yen firm, but political uncertainty in Japan may weigh
By Wanfeng Zhou
NEW YORK, June 26 (Reuters) - The euro fell to two-week lows against the dollar and yen on Tuesday as Spanish bond yields rose and hopes faded that a European summit would make progress in resolving the region's debt crisis.
But further losses ahead of the meeting, which takes place on Thursday and Friday, could be limited as expectations were already low, analysts say. An unexpected positive outcome could spur a short-squeeze in the euro although traders are likely to sell into any bounce.
"The euro is going to trend lower, but I don't think you're going to see any large moves ahead of the summit," said John Doyle, senior strategist at Tempus Consulting in Washington.
"I don't think, realistically, that anyone is expecting a magic bullet to come out of this meeting and to fix all the underlying problems in Europe."
The prospect of a quick move toward a banking union or issuance of common euro zone bonds looked increasingly unlikely, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel describing moves to share debt liability as "counter productive".
Spain's short-term borrowing costs nearly tripled at an auction on Tuesday, a day after the country formally requested a European bank rescue and Moody's cut the ratings of most Spanish lenders. Italy also sold debt, with yields rising to the highest since December.
The euro fell as low as $1.2454, the weakest since June 12, after earlier reported sovereign demand faded. It last traded at $1.2472, down 0.2 percent.
Support was seen near the June 12 low around $1.2441. A break below that level would open the door to a test of the June 1 two-year low of $1.2286.
"There is increasing pessimism as to whether any degree of substantive action will be agreed at the summit. The most encouraging thing is that no one has any expectations, but that's as good as it can get," said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at CIBC.
"If there is any positive reaction I suspect it will be a case that the devil is in the detail and any rallies will be sold into." He added he expected the euro to drop towards $1.23 over the coming weeks.
The euro zone's debt problems showed no signs of abating, with Cyprus becoming the fifth euro zone country to request help as its banks have been hit hard by exposure to debt-crippled Greece.
Against the yen, the euro slipped 0.5 percent to 99.11 after hitting 98.71, also a two-week low. The euro also dropped against sterling to 79.855 pence, its lowest since the end of May.
UBS said skepticism about the euro was reflected in the bank's latest flow monitor, which showed their clients continued to add to short euro positions last week, while overseas investors offloaded a net $2 billion worth of euro-denominated equities, the most since July 2008.
SHOWDOWN IN TOKYO
The risk of disappointment from another euro zone summit and risk aversion supported the Japanese yen and helped it pull away from a near two-month low against the dollar.
The dollar fell 0.3 percent to 79.47 yen, off a high of 80.59 hit on Reuters data on Monday.
But analysts said the yen could struggle as political uncertainty gripped Japan. Japan's lower house approved a plan to double the sales tax to help curb the nation's snowballing debt, although the vote split the ruling Democratic Party.
"The threat of heightened political uncertainty may weigh upon the yen in the near-term although it is more likely to be offset by ongoing negative developments in Europe which are still fuelling safe haven demand for the yen," Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi wrote in a note.
Some market players think the yen may come under pressure if a large number of ruling party lawmakers revolt against Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's tax hike plan, which could force him to call an early election.
Forex Flash: The fiscal conundrum brewing in Japan – Rabobank - FXStreet.com
FOREX-Euro undermined by low expectations for EU summit - Yahoo! Eurosport
(Adds quotes, details)
* Euro undermined by receding hopes on EU summit
* Hits 2-week low vs yen, near 4-week low vs sterling
* Spain's short-term borrowing costs leap at auction
* Yen firm, but political uncertainty in Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) may weigh
LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) - The euro hit a two-week low against the yen and a near-four-week low against the British pound on Tuesday, hurt by rising peripheral euro zone bond yields and expectations a European summit would achieve little to help resolve the region's crisis.
The prospect of a quick move towards a banking union or issuance of common euro zone bonds looked increasingly unlikely, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel describing moves to share debt liability as "counter productive".
Low expectations for the summit, which takes place on Thursday and Friday, may make the euro less vulnerable to a sell-off, analysts said. But a rally following any unexpected positive outcome would merely provide an opportunity to sell.
The euro zone's debt problems showed no signs of abating, with Spain formally requesting aid for its banking sector on Monday, while Cyprus has become the fifth euro zone country to request help.
"There is increasing pessimism as to whether any degree of substantive action will be agreed at the summit. The most encouraging thing is that no one has any expectations, but that's as good as it can get," said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at CIBC.
"If there is any positive reaction I suspect it will be a case that the devil is in the detail and any rallies will be sold into." He added he expected the euro to drop towards $1.23 over the coming weeks.
Underscoring the funding difficulties facing Spain, the country's short-term borrowing costs nearly tripled at an auction on Tuesday, further encouraging investors to push the euro lower.
The euro dipped 0.1 percent against the dollar to $1.2495, pinned close to a two-week low of $1.24713. Traders cited selling by macro funds at higher levels and reported offers from sovereign investors above $1.2530.
Against the yen it lost around 0.5 percent to hit 98.916 yen on EBS trading platform, its weakest since mid-June, while against sterling it dropped to 79.875 pence, its lowest since the end of May.
"There are vague proposals on the table for discussion towards a closer fiscal union but frankly it is tough to see anything concrete coming out of the summit," said Chris Walker, currency strategist at UBS (NYSEArca: DJCI - news) .
"Given the markets are already bearish on the euro, there is a risk of a short squeeze, but that would be a good opportunity to sell the euro."
The euro has support against the dollar at the June 12 low around $1.2443, but a break below there could open the door to a test of the two-year low of $1.2288 hit on June 1.
UBS said scepticism about the euro was reflected in the bank's latest flow monitor, which showed their clients continued to add to short euro positions last week, while overseas investors offloaded a net $2 billion worth of euro-denominated equities, the most since July 2008.
SHOWDOWN IN TOKYO
The risk of disappointment from another euro zone summit and risk aversion supported the Japanese yen and helped it pull away from a two-month low against the dollar.
But the currency could struggle as political uncertainty gripped Japan. Japan's lower house approved a plan to double the sales tax to help curb the nation's snowballing debt, although the vote split the ruling Democratic Party.
The dollar was down 0.3 percent at 79.39 yen, off a two-month high of 80.63 yen struck on Monday.
"The threat of heightened political uncertainty may weigh upon the yen in the near-term although it is more likely to be offset by ongoing negative developments in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) which are still fuelling safe haven demand for the yen," Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi wrote in a note.
Some market players think the yen may come under pressure if a large number of ruling party lawmakers revolt against Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's tax hike plan, which could force him to call an early election. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag; editing by Ron Askew)
No comments:
Post a Comment