FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The greenback has been retreating from the fifteen-month highs recorded last week and is now losing 0.65% versus the Swiss franc. The drop comes after the announcement of economic indicators in the US. April factory orders in the US came disappointingly below forecasts, falling by 0.6% instead of growing by 0.3% and from a previous 2.1% contraction. Last week, the unemployment rate rose to 8.2% while it seems that there is an overall slowdown in the strength of the recovery.
The pair is currently trading at 0.9610, facing resistance at 0.9742, before 0.9824 and 0.9875, according to Fxstreet.com pivot points on technical tools. On the downside, there is support at 0.9609, ahead of 0.9558 and 0.9476.
FOREX-Euro rallies on optimism that bloc to stay intact - Reuters
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MONEY MARKETS-Funding cost rises on Europe worries - Reuters UK
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The Forex Trading Week Ahead - Moneyshow.com
QE Taking Off in the US?
The third consecutive miss in the payrolls report for May increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to take some remedial action when it next meets later in June. The US created 69,000 jobs last month, which was much weaker than the market had been expecting. The April figure was also revised lower to 77,000 from 115,000.
This is starting to look like the summer slowdowns we have experienced over the last three years, which have spurred QE and Operation Twist from the Fed. There was very little good news in the report: the underemployment rate rose to 14.8% from 14.5%, weekly wages expanded by a meager 0.1%, the work week fell, and the rise in the unemployment rate erased recent months’ worth of gains.
The gold price surged after the report and had risen $70 by the time London closed. The strength in the yellow metal was viewed as the market pricing in the prospects for more QE, so when the Fed meets in two weeks, will it pull the trigger on more stimulus?
The reason to do more is compelling: the deteriorating economic outlook at home and the escalation in the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. But what could the Fed do that they haven’t tried already?
While the market seems to prefer fresh money being pumped into the economy, the Fed may be less willing to do this, as it could hurt inflation expectations, especially if the European crisis is “solved” in the coming months. Instead, it may decide that the drop to a record low in the 10-year Treasury yield last week has done enough easing for the US economy, so it may start with a more cautious route such as extending Operation Twist.
This would require the Fed maintaining the size of its balance sheet (should be dollar neutral) while buying securities further down the curve to keep rates lower for longer. The market may be more sensitive to outright QE, which could boost risky assets and weaken the dollar. If the Fed chooses to do more Twist, the impact on the market may be fairly muted, as this is the less-aggressive option open to the Fed. However, if the Fed embarked on some targeted action towards the housing market, for example—fresh purchases of mortgage-backed securities—then we could see risk respond well.
This week, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the US lawmakers on the economic outlook. This will be watched closely, as he explains to the Congress the decline in the data, especially the deeply disappointing and demoralizing jobs report while politicians are gearing up for election season.
His words will be scrutinized to see if there are any signs of more policy action from the Fed. This could keep the dollar volatile on June 7.
The dollar declined slightly on Friday after reaching fresh two-year highs last week. However, while the Eurozone crisis remains the focus in the short to medium term, we think the dollar could strengthen further, although in the second half of this year, the outlook for the dollar is less clear. A deteriorating economic outlook and a Presidential election is a formula for a weaker dollar in my book. But right now, Spain, Bankia, and a lack of action from European authorities are dominating.
RBA Could Cut Rates Again
The data out of Australia, the UK, and Europe has disappointed to the downside in recent weeks, however, at this stage it looks like the RBA and BOE may be the only central banks to take immediate action. A drop in retail sales in April combined with an 8.7% fall in building approval permits for the same month highlight the deteriorating backdrop for the non-mining sector of the Australian economy.
After the 50-basis-point cut at its April meeting, the risk is that the RBA waits until July to see the impact of the previous cut, but we still think that the RBA could react when it meets on June 5. The market expects a 25-basis-point cut to 3.5%, which would be the lowest level for rates since Q1 2010.
We agree with consensus and believe that the RBA will choose to err on doing too much in case the external environment gets worse. As a commodity producer, Australia is reliant on the external environment, so the weakness in both Chinese and European data may be enough to force the RBA’s hand. However, if it does cut rates, then we think it will signal that it is on pause unless the situation deteriorates further. Overall, though, the Aussie dollar’s and the RBA’s rate trajectory may be determined by the Eurozone crisis and the future of Chinese growth.
If the RBA cuts rates, we could see AUD/USD initially dip to 0.9500. However, the Eurozone crisis is likely to have a larger impact on the Aussie in the medium term. If there is continued stress, we could see it fall back towards 0.9120—the 200-week moving average—while remedial action from the European authorities could see it lead a rally in FX markets.
By Kathleen Brooks of FOREX.com
FOREX-Euro rises as investors pare bearish bets on euro zone hopes - Reuters
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Big Money: Stuffing The Ballot Box? - NPR News
You wouldn't think politicians would have any trouble raising enough money these days. The presidential race is expected to be a billion-dollar affair, and spending records have been shattered at the congressional level.
But many candidates are being outgunned by superPACs and other outside groups with nearly unlimited funds at their disposal. Those dollars have swayed primaries in states such as Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio. More than $500,000 in superPAC cash from a 21-year-old college student helped decide the winner of a contested GOP primary last week in Kentucky.
With billionaires dashing off multimillion-dollar checks to superPACs, political scientists and some politicians themselves are worried that candidates have become mere bystanders in their own campaigns.
"Those on the ballot are much more of an afterthought than they ever were before," says Jon Erpenbach, a Democratic state senator in Wisconsin. "In some cases, candidates don't even matter."
Is The System Broken?
All of this has triggered debate about whether it makes sense to have a system in which campaign finance limits apply mainly to political parties and candidates. Opinion on how best to fix the problem remains split roughly along party lines.
An increasing number of Republicans want to close what they consider the opposite of a loophole, saying it makes no sense to handcuff candidates when money is otherwise flowing so freely.
"The problem is the limits," Tennessee GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander said at a recent Rules Committee hearing. "These new superPACs exist because of the contribution limits we've placed upon parties and candidates. Get rid of the limits on contributions, and superPACs will go away."
So, You Want To Create A SuperPAC? Fill In The Blanks
There are 450 superPACs currently registered with the Federal Election Commission. If you want to create your own superPAC, you have to fill out two forms. And it's really, really easy.
First comes the "Statement of Organization," FEC Form 1. Every PAC must file this within 10 days of raising or spending more than $1,000 on a federal election. And crucially, it's where you provide the FEC with the name of your committee.
Choosing a name is one of the main ways you can define your superPAC's purpose. And many of these names appear to have tongue planted firmly in cheek — see comedian Stephen Colbert's superPAC, Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow. Other names already in use: "Bears for a Bearable Tomorrow" and the "Peeps PAC," which raised more than $1,000 in a two-and-a-half month period.
At least 11 existing superPACs, in fact, use the word "tomorrow," and several use it more than once, including Colbert's group and "Cats for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow." Another popular word choice is "future." It's used by 18 superPACs, including the pro-Romney group, Restore Our Future. Other top choices are "action," "America" and "super." But none can measure up to the superPACs' superword: "liberty," used by 71 registered groups in all.
OK, so once you've filled out Form 1 listing the name of your superPAC, your treasurer and your custodian of records, there's only one more thing the FEC needs from you. It's a letter that officially defines your group as a superPAC and announces your intent to "raise funds in unlimited amounts" and not coordinate with a party or candidate. There's even an FEC-approved template that provides you with fill-in-the-blank spaces for your committee name, the date and the treasurer's signature.
— Padmananda Rama
Abolishing those limits would only open the door to outright influence peddling, according to those who advocate keeping the rules in place.
"To suggest that the solution to the problem is for candidates to raise the money themselves would just double down the possibilities for corruption," says Josh Orton, political director of Progressives United, a liberal political action committee that favors campaign finance limits. "Can you imagine the kind of conversations that could happen if we lifted the restrictions on corporations giving to candidates themselves?"
Newt Gingrich, who was targeted by pro-Mitt Romney superPAC ads before ending his presidential bid, says he favors a system in which individuals give directly to campaigns instead of superPACs.
"We would be better off with a system that says any American can donate any personal amount of income after personal taxes as long as they report it online that night, and they give it to the candidate," Gingrich said Thursday. "And then the candidates would have to be responsible for the advertising. You would have a cleaner, more positive, healthier system."
Individuals are limited to donations of $2,500 per candidate per election, which means they can contribute that amount for both primary and general election campaigns. Limits on gifts to parties are higher; for instance, an individual may give a national party $30,800 per year and a state party $10,000.
The limits on what outside groups can spend on campaigns have largely been eroded since the Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling in 2010. That decision has been hailed — and derided — for ushering in a new era of campaign finance law. But it was an earlier Supreme Court decision, in Buckley v. Valeo, that made it hard to make campaign finance restrictions stick.
That case found that money in politics is protected as equivalent to free speech. Ever since the 1976 Buckley decision, money has been like water, finding its way into the political system through new means, regardless of what restrictions have been enacted.
Here Today, But Maybe Not Tomorrow
"Right now, you have the worst of all worlds — unlimited contributions to third-party entities, with some, but certainly not instant, disclosure," says Trey Grayson, a former Republican secretary of state from Kentucky who now directs the Harvard University Institute of Politics.
Grayson says he'd rather see money put in the hands of candidates and parties, who are more accountable to voters than campaign committees that may disappear after the election.
Currently, messages from candidates themselves in a contested race are likely to make up only a "small sliver" of total campaign advertising, says Ed Goeas, a Republican consultant who favors lifting limits while requiring disclosure of donors.
Great Moments In Campaign Finance
2012: SuperPACs become a primary feature of presidential campaigns in both the Republican primary and general election.
2010: The Supreme Court strikes down the ban on direct corporate spending in campaigns in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, while the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals rules that contribution limits for independent groups violate the Constitution.
2002: Congress enacts the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, known as McCain-Feingold, which bans so-called soft money fundraising by political parties and federal officeholders and candidates.
1996: Soft money, unlimited funds raised by parties for voter turnout and education efforts, emerges as a major component of the year's presidential race.
1976: In Buckley v. Valeo, the Supreme Court upholds limits on contributions but strikes down limits on campaign spending.
1974: After Watergate, the Federal Election Campaign Act is amended to limit spending and contributions to campaigns. The law also creates the Federal Election Commission.
— Alan Greenblatt
"Money is now at the end that's furthest away from the candidates and furthest away from the parties," Goeas says. "The money is with these other groups that are having more impact on the campaign than the campaign itself."
SuperPACs are not supposed to coordinate their messages or strategies with candidates, but many campaign finance advocates concede the line often gets blurry.
Still, they say erasing the line entirely would do great damage to the political system. Having politicians directly receive large or unlimited funds from entities they might regulate would be a surefire recipe for corruption, they say.
"We're in pretty bad shape right now, but there are still some lines," says Meredith McGehee, policy director for the Campaign Legal Center. "By funneling large amounts of money to politicians, what you would actually have is just more candidates elected who are beholden to a small elite."
Genie May Be Out Of The Bottle
Supporters of such limits point to possible models to stem the tide of money. Public financing systems in Maine and Arizona, as well as one being bandied about in New York State, for example, give politicians incentive to raise small amounts of money from constituents.
Earlier this month, Connecticut's Legislature passed a bill that would require corporations to be more transparent about their election spending. It's not clear whether Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy will sign it, due to concerns about its constitutionality.
And next month, the Supreme Court may decide to take up a Montana case that would determine whether corporations can be banned from contributing to state-level campaigns. But unless there's a change in the court's voting makeup or proclivities, it's unlikely any restrictions will remain in place to prevent large funds from pouring into campaigns in one form or another.
In a speech Wednesday, former Justice John Paul Stevens, who dissented in the Citizens United case, suggested the court would at some point have to revisit the logic of the 2010 decision. The court concluded that corporate donations amount to protected free speech but did not address whether the same holds true for foreign corporations. "It will be necessary to explain why the First Amendment provides greater protection of some nonvoters than to that of other nonvoters," Stevens said.
Even those who would seek to level the playing field by allowing candidates and parties to raise more money directly believe that the genie may already be out of the bottle. Many rich donors have come to like superPACs, which allow them to control their own messages.
"I do think the current system will get worse until we have significant reforms," says Nick Nyhart, president of the Public Campaign Action Fund, which favors fundraising limits.
"As bad as things are in 2012, they will continue to get worse in 2014 and 2016 unless we have some change," Nyhart says. "The current system cannot hold.
FOREX-Euro rises as investors bet currency bloc to stay intact - Reuters UK
Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.
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