By Marcin Sobczyk
WARSAW--Poland is in a much stronger position "thanks to others buying time during the euro-zone crisis" and after taking steps to reduce its public deficit, said Finance Minister Jan Vincent-Rostowski on Monday.
"We're much stronger in the face of this storm," Mr. Rostowski said on radio RMF FM, reiterating Poland's plan to trim public deficit to 3% of economic output this year from 5.1% in 2011.
Poland's deficit peaked at 7.8% of economic output in 2010, raising concerns at the time over the country's public finance. The Polish government has been trimming the country's deficit with higher taxes, a cap on spending growth of some budget items and a cut of cash transfers to private pension funds.
Poland is the only country in the European Union to have avoided a recession during the financial crisis. The Polish economy grew 3.5% on the year in the first quarter and the central bank expects it to grow about 3% this year.
Higher infrastructure spending in the run-up to the European soccer championship, which Poland is co-hosting with Ukraine this month, is thought to have contributed to Poland's recent growth. Some economists have said that public spending will dry up after the tournament, reducing the pace of Poland's economist expansion.
Mr. Rostowski said Poland will continue to build roads for the rest of this year and in 2013, with less activity in 2014. Road construction should accelerate again from 2015 when EU subsidies from the bloc's new budgetary plan begin-- these are meant for poorer members to help them catch up with the EU's more advanced economies.
Write to Marcin Sobczyk at marcin.sobczyk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires 06-18-120334ET Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Finance: A union to bank on - Financial Times
June 18, 2012 7:21 pm
Forex: EUR/USD still falling, Greek government - FXStreet.com
Man Group finance director Kevin Hayes steps down - BBC News
Kevin Hayes has stepped down as finance director of struggling hedge fund firm Man Group on the day the company is demoted from the FTSE 100.
Jonathan Sorrell, Man's head of strategy and corporate finance, will replace him at Europe's largest listed hedge fund.
Man, whose shares have slumped, is being replaced in the FTSE 100 list of the UK's leading companies by Babcock.
Mr Hayes is leaving to pursue "other interests", Man said in a statement.
He joined Man in 2007.
Man Group shares have tumbled since the last FTSE review in March, and are down almost two-thirds since last year.
The firm's funds have struggled as cautious clients withdraw money because of the market turmoil caused by the eurozone debt crisis.
Mr Sorrell, son of WPP advertising chief Sir Martin Sorrell, spent more than a decade at Goldman Sachs before joining Man last August.
In a statement, Man chief executive Peter Clarke said Mr Sorrell's experience "will be extremely valuable as we continue to develop and evolve in challenging world markets".
Nigeria: Concern Mounts Over Forex Reserves Accretion - AllAfrica.com
The steady growth recorded by Nigeria's forex reserves since this year may discontinue as a result of the sharp drop in the price of crude oil.
THISDAY checks Sunday showed that the forex reserves -derived mainly from the proceeds of crude oil production, fell by $218 million in the last nine days, from $37.768 billion as at June 6 to $37.550 billion last Thursday.
The reserves which stood at $32,985 billion at the beginning of the year, improved remarkably to $35.608 billion at the end of the first quarter.
On the other hand, crude oil price settled at $83.99 per barrel on Friday, after touching an eight-month low near of $81.
This was attributed to concern over Spain's bank bailout, the euro debt scenario, among other external factors. The current value of the oil price reflected a drop by 35 per cent, compared with its peak value of $127 per barrel in mid-March.
At the current rate of decline, financial market experts predicted that forex inflow into the country would fall from the $4.31 billion it was in January to $3.34 billion next month, while they also forecast the external reserves would diminish to $22 billion- covering less than three months of imports.
The development has also impacted negatively on the naira as it has depreciated significantly against the United States dollar, especially at the interbank and parallel markets.
For instance, at the interbank market, the naira has so far fallen by N4.68 to N163.68 to a dollar on Friday, as against the N159 to a dollar it was on May 15. Similarly, at the parallel market, the local currency dropped by a total of N4.20 to close at N164.20/$1 on Friday, compared with the N160/$1 to a dollar it was a month earlier.
Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC), Mr. Bismarck Rewane, said the recent decline in oil prices was partly triggered by market sentiments of a further deepening crisis in the euro-zone, in conjunction with weak economic growth recorded in advanced economies in the first quarter of the year.
"The question however is how vulnerable are Nigeria's external reserves, should oil prices drop further, for example, to a low of $80 per barrel? The Federal Government's budget is benchmarked to oil price at $72 per barrel, while Bonny Light crude is trading at $98 per barrel.
This is a variance of $26 per barrel. At the current rate of decline, we expect forex inflows to fall from $4.31 billion in January to $3.34 billion in July.
"If oil prices were to drop to $80 per barrel (which is 50 per cent likelihood based on current trends), there is a 95 per cent likelihood that forex inflows will decline to approximately $3.03 billion."
"In this situation Nigeria's external reserves would be expected to follow suit and drop to a value as low as $22 billion, covering less than three months of imports. Resultantly, the CBN may be forced to allow the naira to depreciate sharply to N165/$1, to compensate for the substantial loss in oil revenue."
International Financial Advisory and Investment firm - Renaissance Capital (RenCap) also warned that the drop in oil price may pose some risk to the Nigerian economy if the trend continues, even as it expressed concern over the ability of the federal government to meet its revenue projections if the trend continues.
Vice President, Sub-Saharan Africa Economist, RenCap, Yvonne Mhango, said: "This evidently has implications for Nigeria given that it is an important oil exporter. Our estimates suggest that the risk to Nigeria's economy becomes significant if the average oil price for 2012 drops below $75 per barrel."
Similarly, FSDH Securities Limited, in its latest report, stated that "the recent sharp drop in the international price of oil has severe negative implications for the country's external reserves position in the short-to-medium term. The recent shortfall in crude oil production, coupled with the declining price of crude oil could put further pressure on the exchange rate in the face of growing demand, particularly from oil importers."
As a result of all these, the Coordinating Minister of the Economy/Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, last Wednesday, advised members of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) to be proactive in decision making, so as to forestall effects of possible economic recession based on happenings in the global economy. She had warned them to shun wastefulness in the management of the nation's resources.
FOREX-Euro retreats from 1-month high vs dollar - Reuters
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MONEY MARKETS-Spanish bond shortage distorts repo - Reuters UK
* Spanish bond shortage distorts repo market
* Italian rates rise but market still functioning
* Interbank cash rates fall on rate cut expectations
By Kirsten Donovan
LONDON, June 18 (Reuters) - A lack of available Spanish government bonds, due to so many being used to obtain funding at the European Central Bank, is distorting pricing in repo markets and causing investors headaches as they seek to cover hefty short positions.
As international investors sold Spanish government bonds this year, domestic banks bought them and parked them at the ECB in return for funds - particularly during the two recent three-year funding operations.
As a result, investors who need the bonds because of their own short positions must pay a premium for the paper.
When this happens in repo markets - where banks commonly use government bonds as collateral to raise funding - bonds are said to be trading "special".
Effectively, the investor who needs the bonds pays a premium to their counterparty in the trade - the opposite of a typical repo trade where the party borrowing cash pays the premium.
"There's some good evidence of a collateral shortage out there," said ICAP rate strategist Chris Clark. "Quite a lot may be being used at the ECB and the market short (positions) out there will be increasing the demand for specific bonds."
It is the opposite of what might be expected when a country's debt comes under pressure. Then counterparties are usually more reluctant to be left holding the bonds.
"The collateral just isn't there. That's one of the problems and the few bonds that are still available are highly sought after by people who want to cover their short positions," said Commerzbank rate strategist Benjamin Schroeder.
Ten-year Spanish government bond yields have risen more than 130 basis points since the start of May, while two-year yields are up over 2 percentage points.
That prompted international clearing house LCH.Clearnet SA to increase the cost of using Spanish bonds to raise funds via its repo service last month. Analysts said their trading desks had since seen volumes over the platform drop.
"It's a further segregation of European money markets, where banks are retreating from central clearing houses and going back to domestic clearing or bilateral agreements," Schroeder said.
As the euro zone debt crisis intensified this month, mainly due to worries about Spain's banking sector, Italian general collateral (GC) repo rates, paid to borrow funds against a basket of government bonds, have been pushed higher.
There is little trade in the Spanish general collateral market but banks are still able to borrow using Italian bonds as collateral, despite Italy being seen as vulnerable to contagion from worries about Spain.
Three-month Italian GC rates rose to 0.42 percent at the end of last week, compared to the Eonia overnight rate at around 30 basis points, according to ICAP. The Italian rate had traded below Eonia from the time of the ECB's second three-year funding operation at the end of February until the end of May.
"There's been a rise in Italian general collateral rates, both outright and relative to the Eonia OIS curve," ICAP's Clark said. "Despite a reduction in the amount of term activity that goes on, the Italian market is still very much functional."
RATE SPECULATION
Three-month Euribor interbank lending rates eased again, hitting their lowest since the second quarter of 2010 as speculation grew the ECB may cut interest rates.
ECB president Mario Draghi heightened expectations the bank could cut interest rates or take further policy action soon after saying on Friday that the euro zone economy faced serious risks and no inflation threat.
September and December Euribor futures contracts rallied to contract highs, pushing implied rates lower.
Markets are pricing in a 50 percent chance of a 12.5 basis point cut in the ECB's 0.25 percent deposit rate this year, and a 25 percent of the rate being cut to zero, according to RBS.
Trade Forex as Sterling Falls Following BoE Announcement - Yahoo Finance
LONDON, June 18, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --
On Friday, June 15, the pound fell against the US dollar following the Bank of England's announcement of an emergency liquidity package the day before. But how will you profit from this fall?
In the guide below, we show you how you can profit from the depreciating sterling through a spot forex trading account from City Index.
BoE Announces Emergency Liquidity Package
On Thursday evening last week (14 June), Governor Mervyn King suggested more quantative easing (QE) could be on its way as the Bank of England announced an emergency liquidity package to support the British banking system.
In his keynote speech, King said that the BoE would also be providing cheap long-term funding to encourage lending to businesses and consumers.
Pound Depreciates against Dollar
Whilst many investors in the marketplace said the measures planned by King would support the UK economy; further suggestions of monetary easing prompted investors to sell-off sterling in early London trade on Friday (15 June).
How to Trade Forex
With a City Index forex trading account you can take a position on the future price movement of 37 currency pairs within the foreign exchange market.
As a global currency market - trading 24-hours a day from Sunday evening to Friday night - forex offers traders multiple opportunities to potentially profit from fast-moving major, minor and exotic currency pairs.
Unlike in traditional equity markets, trading forex with City Index allows you to profit from market movements - regardless of whether they are rising or falling.
With this in mind, using the example above whereby the pound depreciates against the US dollar - traders have the potential to 'go short' and sell the pound with the aim of potentially profiting from every pip that it depreciates further.
In addition, as a leveraged product - forex trading requires only a small percentage of the underlying market's total value as an initial deposit.
This enables traders to control a relatively large exposure for only a small amount, gain greater access to the global currency markets and possibly magnify gains.
It is important to remember, however, that as a leverage product, you also run the risk of losing more than your initial deposit. A forex risk management strategy should be used in order to limit potential losses.
Start Trading Forex
To start trading forex across a range of trading platforms - including mobile - you can apply for a forex trading account with City Index through their website: http:http://www.cityindex.co.uk
Read More Forex Trading Tips
If you found this article helpful, you may want to read more just like this. You can access a range of free forex trading tips, guides and articles through the City Index website also.
About City Index:
Today more and more individual traders are discovering the benefits of derivatives, and many of them are discovering them through a City Index trading platform.
As a group, we transact in excess of 1.5 million trades every month in over 50 countries. We provide access to a wide range of instruments including margined foreign exchange, CFDs and, in the UK, financial spread betting.
We constantly look to improve the performance of our platforms and expand our range of services. The result is our customers benefit from innovative trading tools with transparent pricing, competitive spreads, and a high standard of customer support. Visit http://www.cityindex.co.uk/ for details.
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FOREX-Euro slides from 1-month high vs dollar - Reuters
* Greek bounce short-lived; Spain, Italy fears dominate
* Spanish 10-year bond yields rise above 7 pct
* Euro seen a sell into any bounce
NEW YORK, June 18 (Reuters) - The euro fell from a one-month high against the dollar on Monday after four days of gains, as an election win for pro-bailout parties in Greece faled to ease worrries about Spain's borrowing costs, which surged to levels seen as unsustainable.
While the election result allayed immediate fears of Greece being forced out of the euro zone, uncertainty persisted as the winning centre-right New Democracy party must now try to cobble together a government with other parties backing the international bailout.
Antonio Samaras, the New Democracy leader, on Monday, said the country needed as broad a coalition government as possible, after radical leftist refused to join.
Market players were also concerned about the euro zone's ability to respond to the risk of contagion engulfing larger economies like Spain and Italy. All of which is likely to see investors sell into any near-term bounce by the euro.
"The win in Greece does not really resolve anything. It's still going to be tough for Greece," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director ar investment advisory firm BK Asset Management in New York.
"And with Spanish and Italian yields at high levels, the credit market remained skeptical that Europe is going to get out of the debt crisis."
The euro was down 0.1 percent on the day at $1.2619, off a one-month high of $1.2747 struck in the Asian session, as it came under pressure on reported selling by Asian sovereign investors.
It fell past reported stop-loss orders around $1.2660-70 to $1.2620 in the European session with support expected around the June 13 high of $1.2610.
Ten-year Spanish government bond yields, hit by persistent concern about the country's fiscal and banking problems, rose above the 7 percent line seen as unsustainable in the long-term and at a level that forced other peripheral euro zone nations to seek bailouts.
Despite the problems facing the bloc, some strategists saw potential for the euro to rise given a build-up of huge bearish positions in the common currency, taken on concerns that a win for anti-bailout parties could lead to Greece rejecting austerity measures and leaving the euro.
"In the short term, a short squeeze or speculation about quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could give the euro a lift, but in the medium term it is a sell because Europe's problems are deep-rooted and will not go away," said Howard Jones, adviser at RMG Wealth Management.
"Any rebound to around $1.2800 is a selling opportunity."
Positioning data showed speculators' massive net short positions of 195,187 contracts last week, even after having trimmed them from the previous week's record high of 214,418 contracts.
Fund of funds Quaesta Capital in Zurich Switzerland, which manages $3 billion in assets, saw euro shorts among its fund managers continuing to be one of the biggest positions last week, along with bets against the Swiss franc.
Interestingly, the U.S. dollar showed the largest outflow last week in the portfolios of the fund managers Quaesta tracks, while the Canadian currency showed the biggest inflow last week.
FED QE RISK MAY HELP EURO
In the options market, near-term implied volatilities fell, with the one-week easing to 11.45 percent from a high of around 16.75 percent last Thursday, while the one-month fell to a roughly four-week low of 11.26 percent.
However, one-month risk reversals pointed to a bias for euro weakness.
European finance ministers meet on Friday and a summit is scheduled for the end of this month, but little is expected in the way of fresh policy measures towards a banking union or greater fiscal integration like common eurobonds.
Traders expect some volatility in the currency market in coming days. The common currency could benefit versus the dollar on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may opt for more easing to boost growth.
Many market players expect the Fed to extend its long-term bond-buying through Operation Twist by a few months from the current deadline of June, after a series of disappointing data. Additional easing by the Fed could also support other perceived riskier currencies against the greenback.
The dollar index was up 0.3 prcent at 81.845 after hitting a one-month low of 81.266. The Australian dollar was down 0.1 percent at US$1.0067, off a one-month high of US$1.0135.
The safe-haven yen fell against the euro, which rose 0.3 percent to 99.76 yen, while the dollar advanced 0.5 percent at 79.12 as a result of the initial risk-positive reaction to the Greek vote.
FOREX-Euro drops vs dollar, yen as Spain weighs - Reuters UK
Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.
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