LONDON |
LONDON (Reuters) - The euro pared gains against the dollar on Thursday as Spanish and Italian bond yields surged, highlighting the risk of euro zone contagion ahead of Sunday's elections in Greece that could lead to the country being pushed out of the common currency.
The euro's outlook may stay bearish after benchmark 10-year Spanish government bond yields hitting 7 percent on Thursday - a level where fellow euro zone members such as Greece and Ireland had to seek international bailouts as it is seen as too expensive in the long term.
The aid deal put together for Spanish banks at the weekend has signally failed to calm the markets, with Italian three-year borrowing costs spiking to 5.30 percent at an auction on Thursday.
The common currency fell to a session low $1.2542 on trading platform EBS, turning lower on the day and off the day's high of $1.25894. It was last trading at $1.2565 with large option expiries cited at $1.2500 which could curtail losses for the time being.
"Spanish yields are creeping up, which clearly indicates that the bank bailout deal will not change anything and they are dragging Italian yields higher," said Stuart Frost, head of Absolute Returns and Currency at fund manager RWC Partners.
"For the euro/dollar, all this means it is on a slippery slope down."
Earlier, the common currency took Moody's downgrade of Spanish government debt to one notch above junk status in its stride.
Many analysts said the euro was likely to trade between $1.24 and $1.27 ahead of Sunday's Greek vote, with investors either reluctant to initiate fresh bearish bets or squaring positions given uncertainty over the election outcome.
Speculators have added to very large bearish bets against the euro in the past few weeks, leaving scope to the euro to stage a short-covering rally if parties supporting austerity and reforms in Greece win at the weekend.
Right now, it is too close to call and a victory for the far-left SYRIZA, which opposes the austerity measures on which Greece's bailout deals are based, would intensify fears of a potential euro zone break-up, and likely push the currency towards recent two-year lows around $1.2280.
A sharp rise in yields on German Bunds, viewed as the euro zone's safest asset, has also raised concerns that the cost of the debt crisis is growing for Germany, the bloc's paymaster. A further rise in German yields would weigh further on the euro, traders said.
SNB REITERATES FRANC CAP
The Swiss franc rose against the euro after the SNB said it was prepared to buy unlimited amounts to defend the 1.20 level. The euro fell to 1.2008 francs on trading platform EBS, from around 1.20196 before the announcement.
Traders said the SNB has been buying lots of euros in recent weeks, stepping up its defense of the cap ahead of the Greek election, which could fuel demand for the safe-haven franc. SNB President Thomas Jordan hinted that capital controls could be introduced if the situation in the euro zone deteriorates and puts more upward pressure on the franc.
"Clearly the SNB is trying to downplay the franc's attractiveness and buy more time. We expect further pressure on the euro/Swiss franc 'floor' in the coming days, especially considering the Greek elections," said Peter Rosenstreich, chief FX analyst at Swissquote Bank, in a note.
Against the yen, the euro eased 0.1 percent to 99.60, off a session high of 100 yen, with Japanese exporters' bids lined up above that level. The dollar fetched 79.26 yen, off Monday's high of 79.92 yen with expectations of more easing by the Federal Reserve weighing on the greenback.
The New Zealand dollar was up 0.5 percent on the day at US$0.7778, paring gains from Wednesday, when it hit a one-month high of $0.7808.
The kiwi eased after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said a weak economy and an uncertain global outlook meant rates need to stay at record lows. As expected, the RBNZ kept rates unchanged at 2.5 percent for a 10th straight meeting.
(Additional reporting by Nia Williams; Editing by Hugh Lawson, Adrian Croft)
FOREX-Dollar falls vs yen and euro after US jobless claims data - Reuters India
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FOREX-Euro supported but Italy, Greece risks loom - Reuters
* Euro gains respite vs dollar but outlook gloomy
* Higher borrowing costs expected at Italy debt sale
* Investors wary ahead of Greek election on Sunday
By Nia Williams
LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - The euro steadied against the dollar on Thursday but investors were cautious ahead of an Italian bond auction at which borrowing costs are expected to rise and Greek elections on Sunday that could lead to the country's exit from the euro.
The common currency dipped against the Swiss franc after the Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment to defend a cap of 1.20 per euro on the franc's value.
Extreme bearish positions in the euro meant its losses were limited despite credit ratings agency Moody's downgrading Spanish government debt by three notches.
Many analysts said the euro was likely to trade in a range between $1.24 and $1.27 ahead of Sunday's Greek vote, with investors reluctant to enter fresh short positions given uncertainty over the election outcome.
The common currency was last up 0.1 percent on the day at $1.2573 with offers expected around $1.2610 and $1.2670, near Wednesday and Monday's respective highs.
"The underlying problem of deteriorating confidence in sovereign debt in Europe is continuing to intensify, although unless there's a material weakening in demand at the Italian auction it's not really going to alter the FX market," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
"The euro has been relatively stable as we head into the Greek election and that will dictate market direction next week. Investors do not want to take on extra risk at this point."
Rome is due to sell up to 4.5 billion euros of bonds later in the session, with its cost of funds expected to rise sharply.
Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy, is coming under pressure in financial markets as reforms undertaken by its unelected government have stalled and with no clear strategy emerging in Europe to end the broader debt crisis.
Concerns about Spain and Italy meant the euro may come under fresh pressure even if parties in favour of Greece's bailout programme win the election.
Victory for leftist SYRIZA, which is opposed to austerity measures on which Greece's bailout deals are conditional, would intensify fears of a potential euro zone break-up, and likely push the currency towards recent two-year lows around $1.2280.
A sharp rise in yields on German Bunds, viewed as the euro zone's safest asset, has raised concerns that the cost of the debt crisis is growing even for the bloc's paymaster Germany.
"The fact that Bunds were sold for two days in a row is deeply disturbing," said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at SMBC. "Investors may be starting to cut exposure to the entire euro area. And if you look at what's happening in Europe, it's hard to think they won't do that."
SNB REITERATES FRANC CAP
The Swiss franc rose against the euro after the SNB said it was prepared to buy unlimited amounts to defend the 1.20 level. The euro fell to 1.20102 francs on trading platform EBS, from around 1.20196 before the announcement.
Traders said the SNB has been buying large amounts of euros in recent weeks, stepping up its defence of the cap ahead of the Greek election that could fuel demand for the safe-haven franc.
"Clearly the SNB is trying to downplay the franc's attractiveness and buy more time. We expect further pressure on the EURCHF "floor" in the coming days, especially considering the Greek elections," said Peter Rosenstreich, chief FX analyst at Swissquote Bank, in a note.
Against the yen, the euro stood at 99.93, not far off an overnight peak around 100.11, with Japanese exporters' bids lined up above 100 yen. The dollar fetched 79.39 yen , off Monday's high of 79.92 yen.
The New Zealand dollar was up 0.3 percent on the day at US$0.7768, paring gains from Wednesday when it hit a one-month high of $0.7808.
The kiwi lost a few pips after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said a weak economy and an uncertain global outlook meant rates need to stay at record lows. As expected, the RBNZ kept rates unchanged at 2.5 percent for a 10th straight meeting.
Forex focus: European unity may lie ahead – but for how many? - Daily Telegraph
As HiFX’s Chris Towner says: “Germany is being forced into a corner where it is they who will need to start to give up if they would like Europe to become more unified. The Spanish finance minister is right to say that the battle for the euro will be waged in Spain, but it will be decided in Germany.”
Eurosceptics suspect Germany will use the crisis to usher in a United States of Europe.
“Is there a hidden German agenda? Probably not,” answers Charles Purdy of Smart Currency Exchange. “They have always thought and made clear that greater fiscal unity is a must for the euro – ensuring that each country adopts their fiscal discipline. Up to now the political will has been lacking but if the euro is to survive and the 'weaker’ countries are to benefit from Germany’s strong credit rating then fiscal union will be what Germany expects.”
World First’s chief economist Jeremy Cook believes greater unification will take decades, saying: “Fiscal union is the endgame for the eurozone – a United States of Europe that has centralised fiscal and monetary policy and leadership based from one location. This will take years to set up and will only follow a huge upheaval of the European political landscape.”
However, while the consensus view is that the eurozone will bind closer together, this doesn’t mean that all 17 members will remain in the club.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that some nations can’t remain in the eurozone,” says Richard Driver of Caxton FX. “A stronger eurozone with a fiscal union is the only way the eurozone can survive but this won’t come soon enough for Greece.”
Stephen Hughes of Currencies.co.uk is sceptical, saying, “As a growing number of voices call for greater fiscal union across the eurozone, it’s still by no means a given that this is an achievable path – don’t forget that even the German people have yet to ratify the fiscal compact.
“But, given the depth of the current euro crisis, we are likely to see a more accommodating stance from policymakers in the coming months. What is clear is that any move to greater unity will take time to implement, something Greece certainly doesn’t have. As for Spain, Portugal and Ireland, the jury’s out for them...”
Eloy Garcia, IE Business School - Financial Times
Every week, a business school professor, an expert in his or her field, defines key terms on FT Lexicon, our online economics, business and finance glossary.
Eloy Garcia has been a visiting professor of finance and strategy at IE Business School in Madrid since 2006.
Between 1971 and 2007, Prof Garcia was at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in Washington. His last position was that of Treasurer of the institution, a position he occupied for seven years.
Before joining the IDB, Prof Garcia worked for the Comptroller of the Cerro de Pasco Corporation at its offices in Lima and New York.
Prof Garcia holds a BA in international finance and an MA in economic development from Georgetown University in Washington.
Prof Garcia has been teaching graduate students for the past 25 years alongside his IDB career. He is a professor of international financial markets and development finance and banking at the American University in Washington and professor of financial management and fixed income at the Carey Business School of Johns Hopkins University. He is an occasional professorial lecturer of fixed income management at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University.
He was a member of the International Advisory Board of Cass Business School from 2000 to 2009 and currently is a member of its MBA programme board.
This week, Eloy Garcia adds the following terms to FT Lexicon:
Compiled by Emmanuelle Smith
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