My speech to the finance graduates of this world - Times of Malta
At this time of year, at graduation ceremonies in America and elsewhere, those about to leave university often hear some final words of advice before receiving their diplomas. To those interested in pursuing careers in finance – or related careers in insurance, accounting, auditing, law or corporate management – I submit the following address:
Best of luck to you as you leave the academy for your chosen professions in finance. Over the course of your careers, Wall Street and its kindred institutions will need you. Your training in financial theory, economics, mathematics and statistics will serve you well. But your lessons in history, philosophy, and literature will be just as important, because it is vital not only that you have the right tools, but also that you never lose sight of the purposes and overriding social goals of finance.
Unless you have been studying at the bottom of the ocean, you know that the financial sector has come under severe criticism – much of it justified – for thrusting the world economy into its worst crisis since the Great Depression. And you need only check in with some of your classmates who have populated the Occupy movements around the world to sense the widespread resentment of financiers and the top one per cent of income earners to whom they largely cater (and often belong).
While some of this criticism may be over-stated or misplaced, it nonetheless underscores the need to reform financial institutions and practices. Finance has long been central to thriving market democracies, which is why its current problems need to be addressed. With your improved sense of our interconnectedness and diverse needs, you can do that. Indeed, it is the real professional challenge ahead of you, and you should embrace it as an opportunity.
Young finance professionals need to familiarise themselves with the history of banking, and recognise that it is at its best when it serves ever-broadening spheres of society. Here, the savings-bank movement in the United Kingdom and Europe in the 19th century, and the microfinance movement pioneered by the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh in the 20th century, comes to mind. Today, the best way forward is to update financial and communications technology to offer a full array of enlightened banking services to the lower middle class and the poor.
Graduates going into mortgage banking are faced with a different, but equally vital, challenge: to design new, more flexible loans that will better help homeowners to weather the kind of economic turbulence that has buried millions of people today in debt.
Young investment bankers, for their part, have a great opportunity to devise more participatory forms of venture capital – embodied in the new crowd-funding websites – to spur the growth of innovative new small businesses. Meanwhile, opportunities will abound for rookie insurance professionals to devise new ways to hedge risks that real people worry about, and that really matter – those involving their jobs, livelihoods, and home values.
Beyond investment banks and brokerage houses, modern finance has a public and governmental dimension, which clearly needs reinventing in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Setting the rules of the game for a robust, socially useful financial sector has never been more important. Recent graduates are needed in legislative and administrative agencies to analyse the legal infrastructure of finance, and regulate it so that it produces the greatest results for society.
A new generation of political leaders needs to understand the importance of financial literacy and find ways to supply citizens with the legal and financial advice that they need. Meanwhile, economic policymakers face the great challenge of designing new financial institutions, such as pension systems and public entitlements based on the solid grounding of intergenerational risk-sharing.
Those of you deciding to pursue careers as economists and finance scholars need to develop a better understanding of asset bubbles – and better ways to communicate this understanding to the finance profession and to the public. As much as Wall Street had a hand in the current crisis, it began as a broadly held belief that housing prices could not fall – a belief that fuelled a full-blown social contagion. Learning how to spot such bubbles and deal with them before they infect entire economies will be a major challenge for the next generation of finance scholars.
Equipped with sophisticated financial ideas ranging from the capital asset pricing model to intricate options-pricing formulas, you are certainly and justifiably interested in building materially rewarding careers. There is no shame in this, and your financial success will reflect to a large degree your effectiveness in producing strong results for the firms that employ you.
But, however imperceptibly, the rewards for success on Wall Street, and in finance more generally, are changing, just as the definition of finance must change if is to reclaim its stature in society and the trust of citizens and leaders.
Finance, at its best, does not merely manage risk, but also acts as the steward of society’s assets and an advocate of its deepest goals. Beyond compensation, the next generation of finance professionals will be paid its truest rewards in the satisfaction that comes with the gains made in democratising finance – extending its benefits into corners of society where they are most needed.
This is a new challenge for a new generation, and will require all of the imagination and skill that you can bring to bear.
Good luck in reinventing finance. The world needs you to succeed.
© Project Syndicate, 2012, www.project-syndicate.org.
The author is professor of economics and finance at Yale University. His new book is Finance and the Good Society.
Forex: GBP/USD hovering over 1.5700 - FXStreet.com
Finance sector prepares for Greek exit - just in case - New Statesman
No matter how unlikely the financial sector thinks Greece exiting the euro will be, it is taking every precaution possibile to make sure it doesn't get hurt by the process.
Lloyd's of London is preparing for a collapse of the single currency, and has reduced its exposure to the continent "as much as possible", according to a report in the Sunday Telegraph. Despite that, Europe still accounts for 18 per cent of Lloyd's £23.5bn of gross written premiums, with much of that concentrated in Spain and Italy, as well as the safer markets of France and Germany.
Richard Ward, the chief executive of Lloyd's, said:
I'm quite worried about Europe. With all the concerns around the eurozone at the moment, we've got to be careful doing business in Europe and there are a lot of question marks over writing business in the future in euros. I don't think that if Greece exited the euro it would lead to the collapse of the eurozone, but what we need to do is prepare for that eventuality. . .
We've got multi-currency functionality and we would switch to multi-currency settlement if the Greeks abandoned the euro and started using the drachma again.
Other institutions are putting their own houses in order. Two weeks ago, ITV's Laura Kuenssberg tweeted from a trading floor where the drachma had already been installed into the systems, and Reuters reported that a number of banks were quietly preparing for the exit, in which case those problems would be the least of their worries:
Some banks never erased the drachma from their systems after Greece adopted the euro more than a decade ago and would be ready at the flick of a switch if its debt problems forced it to bring back national banknotes and coins. . .
A Greek departure from the euro would create legal and practical problems for the banks which would dwarf the relatively straightforward technical job of dealing in a new currency.
But how unlikely does everyone think exit actually is? Are they covering for an extreme black swan event, or is it something which they are all expecting? Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider provides this chart, from Credit Suisse:
For those of you without the maths skills, that's a roughly 15 per cent total chance of a Greek exit, and another 20 per cent chance of a third round of elections (which, of course, takes us right back where we are already). Not definitely going to happen, but worth preparing for in case. No one wants to shout "fire" and spark a run, but no one wants to be the last one in the burning room either.
FOREX-Greek polls help euro rebound but rally seen fading - Reuters
(Recasts, adds quotes, details)
* Euro rises past stop-loss orders above $1.2620
* Gains seen fleeting as banks, peripheral debt concerns weigh
* Euro bearish positions at records, euro/Swiss franc up
By Anirban Nag
LONDON, May 28 (Reuters) - The euro recovered from two-year lows on Monday as Greek opinion polls showed parties which favour sticking with the country's international bailout deal gaining support, leading investors to cut some of the record bearish bets against the common currency.
Most investors were pessimistic over how long the rebound would last, with many worrying about the lack of growth in Europe and the fragile health of Spanish banks. These concerns have dragged the euro 4.7 percent lower in May and left it on track for its worst monthly performance since September.
The euro drew support from opinion polls which suggested a victory for the conservative New Democracy party in the June 17 election. That would make it more likely that the next Greek government will stick to the terms of the bailout agreed with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, enabling it to stay in the currency club.
These expectations saw the euro rise 0.7 percent to $1.2595 , pulling away from Friday's $1.2495, its lowest level since July 2010. It hit a session high of $1.2625 as stop-loss orders above 1.2620 were triggered, although robust offers layered at $1.2630/50 would check gains, traders said.
Volumes though were on the lower side due to a holiday in some parts of Europe, with the U.S. also shut.
"Investors have got a bit exhausted selling the euro in the absence of more negative news," said John Hardy, currency strategist at Saxo Bank. "So we are seeing some consolidation after the euro's sharp drop from $1.33 to around $1.25."
Indeed, speculators bolstered their euro bearish bets to record highs in the week ended May 22, while dollar longs rose to the highest since at least mid-2008, leaving ample scope for a correction as they cut positions and book profits.
"Heading into the Greek elections we'll fluctuate a lot. Because the market is very, very short euro, reactions to any positive news may be bigger than those to negative news," said Mitul Kotecha of Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank.
"That said, even if we get some good news from Greece, the weight of bad news elsewhere is likely to keep any bounce in the euro short-lived," he said.
Sentiment towards the euro took a knock towards end of last week as the state takeover of Spain's fourth-largest lender, Bankia, intensified worries that the rising cost of supporting banks may push the euro zone's fourth-largest economy to seek an international bailout.
The bank last week asked for rescue funding of 19 billion euros and its shares opened down 26.75 percent on Monday. On top of that, Spain revealed that its highly indebted regions faced 36 billion euros of debt refinancing bills this year, way above the previously stated 8 billion euros.
All of which drove the yield spread between 10-year Spanish and German 10-government bonds to a euro-era high.
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Betting against the euro: link.reuters.com/fuv76s
Global manufacturing PMIs: link.reuters.com/byv24s
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TEMPORARY GAINS
The euro also rose against the Swiss franc to 1.2030 after the Swiss National Bank head Thomas Jordan said that Switzerland is drawing up plans for emergency measures including capital controls in case the euro collapses.
He added he will continue to defend a cap on the franc in the meantime. The euro had jumped to its highest since mid-March on Thursday on rumours that Swiss authorities were planning to impose taxes on bank deposits.
With the euro gaining some ground, the dollar index, which tracks its performance against a basket of major currencies, came off its highest level since September 2010, hit on Friday, to last stand at 81.958, down 0.5 percent on the day.
The dollar also lost 0.3 percent against the yen, last fetching 79.40, with traders citing dollar-selling by Japanese exporters who had missed a chance to sell it above 80.00 yen and are now doing so at lower levels.
The yen was further supported as the Bank of Japan minutes suggested a pause in easing, by complaining of "misunderstanding" in markets that they will keep loosening automatically until 1 percent inflation was in sight.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars jumped more than 1 percent against the dollar. The Aussie was bolstered by buying from real money investors and corporates and that helped it pull away from a six-month low of $0.9690 hit last week.
(Additional reporting by Antoni Sladkowski; Editing by Catherine Evans)
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