El Mundo reports that the country can no longer resist the bond markets as 10-year yields flirt with 6.5pc again, and the spread over Bunds – or `prima de riesgo' — hits a fresh record each day.
Premier Mariano Rajoy and his inner circle have allegedly accepted that Spain will have to call on Europe's EFSF bail-out fund to rescue the banking system, even though this means subjecting his country to foreign suzerainty.
Mr Rajoy denies the story, not surprisingly since it would be a devastating climb-down, and not all options are yet exhausted.
"There will not be any (outside) rescue for the Spanish banking system," he said.
Fine, so where is the €23.5bn for the Bankia rescue going to come from? The state's Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB) is down to €5.3bn, and there are many other candidates for that soup kitchen.
Spain must somehow rustle up €20bn or more on the debt markets. This will push the budget deficit back into the danger zone, though Madrid will no doubt try to keep it off books – or seek backdoor funds from the ECB to cap borrowing costs. Nobody will be fooled.
Meanwhile, Bankia's shares crashed 30pc this morning. JP Morgan and Nomura expect a near total wipeout. Investors who bought the new shares at flotation last year may lose almost everything.
This all has a very Irish feel to me, without Irish speed and transparency. Spanish taxpayers are swallowing the losses of the banking elites, sparing creditors their haircuts.
Barclays Capital says Spain's housing crash is only half way through. Home prices will have to fall at least 20pc more to clear the 1m overhang of excess properties. If so, the banking costs for the Spanish state are going to be huge.
The Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels puts likely write-offs at €270bn. We could see Spain's public debt surge into triple digits in short order.
As I wrote in my column this morning, the Spanish economy is spiralling into debt-deflation. Monetary and fiscal policy are both excruciatingly tight for a country in this condition. The plan to slash the budget deficit from 8.9pc to 5.3pc this year in the middle of an accelerating contraction borders on lunacy.
You cannot do this to a society where unemployment is already running at 24.4pc. Either Europe puts a stop to this very quickly by mobilising the ECB to take all risk of a Spanish (or Italian) sovereign default off the table – and this requires fiscal union to back it up – or it must expect Spanish patriots to take matters into their own hands and start to restore national self-control outside EMU.
Just to be clear to new readers, I am not "calling for" a German bail-out of Spain or any such thing. My view has always been that EMU is a dysfunctional and destructive misadventure – for reasons that have been well-rehearsed for 20 years on these pages.
My point is that if THEY want to save THEIR project and avoid a very nasty denouement, such drastic action is what THEY must do.
If Germany cannot accept the implications of this – and I entirely sympathise with German citizens who balk at these demands, since such an outcome alienates the tax and spending powers of the Bundestag to an EU body and means the evisceration of their democracy – then Germany must leave EMU. It is the least traumatic way to break up the currency bloc (though still traumatic, of course).
My criticism of Germany is the refusal to face up to either of these choices, clinging instead to a ruinous status quo.
The result of Europe's policy paralysis is more likely to be a disorderly break-up as Spain – and others – act desperately in their own national interest. Se salve quien pueda.
I fail to see how Spain gains anything durable from an EFSF loan package. The underlying crisis will grind on. Yes, the current account deficit has dropped from 10pc to 3.5pc of GDP, but chiefly by crushing internal demand and pushing the jobless toll to 5.6 million. The "unemployment adjusted current account equilibrium" — to coin a concept – is frankly frightening.
The FT's Wolfgang Munchau suggested otherwise last week, saying Spain's competitiveness gap has been exaggerated. I can see what he means since Spain's exports are growing even faster than German exports. But this is from a low base. It is not enough to plug the gap.
Spain is quite simply in the wrong currency. That is the root of the crisis. Loan packages merely drag out the agony.
A Spanish economist sent me an email over the weekend after the Bankia details came out saying:
"It looks like game over for the sovereign and the financial sector at the same time. Unless we get a Deus ex Machina, we'll be discussing much more seriously the benefits of a return to the peseta in no time."
It begins.
10 Ways to Save Money on Summer Travel - NASDAQ
Memorial Day marks the beginning of the summer travel season. So if you're planning to hit the road this weekend or take a vacation over the coming months, here are tips to help keep costs under control.
DOWNLOAD: The Kip Tips iPad App
Save money on the road
Download free travel apps. You can save time and money by downloading mobile applications. For example, you can use your smart phone to comparison shop for the lowest gas prices in your zip code with a free app such as GasBuddy. Here are more free travel apps you should consider downloading.
Avoid unnecessary rental car fees. If you rent a car to avoid putting miles on your own, make sure that you don't pay more than you have to by saying no to the add-ons rental companies offer. See How to Avoid Unnecessary Rental Car Fees for the extras you should avoid.
Save money when flying
Check fares often. To find the best price on a ticket, you need to check fares often because they fluctuate throughout the day, says George Hobica, founder of Airfarewatchdog.com. Seat availability also varies during the day. For example, Hobica says an airline might have just one seat available at the lowest fare at 10 a.m., but it will open up more cheap seats later in the day.
Sign up for fare alerts. Don't have time to check airfares every day? Sign up for alerts from airlines and travel sites -- such as Airfarewatchdog.com and FareCompare -- so you'll know if prices drop.
Search airline sites individually. Sites such as Travelocity, Kayak and Bing Travel can help you compare prices among many airlines. But Hobica says that it pays to visit airlines' sites because some reserve their best fares for their own sites. For example, Airfarewatchdog fare searchers often find lower fares on www.jetblue.com, even without discounts.
Be flexible. If you don't need to travel on a specific date, Bing Travel will show you when fares are cheapest to a destination of your choice. Travelocity will search most domestic fares and many international ones over a 330-day search period. If you're looking to get away but don't have a particular destination in mind, Airfarewatchdog.com will show you the cheapest flights out of the airport nearest to you. You also can save money if you're flexible about which airport you fly out of or into (see How to Save on Last-Minute Flights ).
Avoid baggage fees. If saving money by being flexible isn't an option, at least don't pay more than you have to when you fly. Only Southwest Airlines lets you check two bags for free. Most of the other airlines charge about $25 for your first checked bag and $35 for a second checked bag. So pack lightly in a carry-on or consider shipping your luggage, especially if you have overweight or oversize bags that will cost significantly less to ship.
Save money on accommodations
Try Priceline. I save big on hotel rooms whenever I use Priceline's Name Your Own Price feature. You won't know which hotel you're booking until you pay, but you can increase your odds of getting the hotel you want by following these tips .
Get a refund if your hotel price drops. If you book a room months before your actual stay, chances are the price will be cheaper when you check in than when you made your reservation. However, if you book through Tingo , your room will automatically be rebooked at the lower rate if the hotel drops its price. Then you'll get a refund for the difference ( learn more ).
Consider a vacation rental home , especially for longer stays. Renting an apartment, condo or house can often be cheaper than a hotel room. Plus, you'll have access to a kitchen, so you won't have to pay for pricey restaurant meals. Check HomeAway.com or VRBO.com .
Get 100 of our top money-saving tips by downloading the new iPad app or purchasing the PDF version .
My speech to the finance graduates of this world - Times of Malta
At this time of year, at graduation ceremonies in America and elsewhere, those about to leave university often hear some final words of advice before receiving their diplomas. To those interested in pursuing careers in finance – or related careers in insurance, accounting, auditing, law or corporate management – I submit the following address:
Best of luck to you as you leave the academy for your chosen professions in finance. Over the course of your careers, Wall Street and its kindred institutions will need you. Your training in financial theory, economics, mathematics and statistics will serve you well. But your lessons in history, philosophy, and literature will be just as important, because it is vital not only that you have the right tools, but also that you never lose sight of the purposes and overriding social goals of finance.
Unless you have been studying at the bottom of the ocean, you know that the financial sector has come under severe criticism – much of it justified – for thrusting the world economy into its worst crisis since the Great Depression. And you need only check in with some of your classmates who have populated the Occupy movements around the world to sense the widespread resentment of financiers and the top one per cent of income earners to whom they largely cater (and often belong).
While some of this criticism may be over-stated or misplaced, it nonetheless underscores the need to reform financial institutions and practices. Finance has long been central to thriving market democracies, which is why its current problems need to be addressed. With your improved sense of our interconnectedness and diverse needs, you can do that. Indeed, it is the real professional challenge ahead of you, and you should embrace it as an opportunity.
Young finance professionals need to familiarise themselves with the history of banking, and recognise that it is at its best when it serves ever-broadening spheres of society. Here, the savings-bank movement in the United Kingdom and Europe in the 19th century, and the microfinance movement pioneered by the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh in the 20th century, comes to mind. Today, the best way forward is to update financial and communications technology to offer a full array of enlightened banking services to the lower middle class and the poor.
Graduates going into mortgage banking are faced with a different, but equally vital, challenge: to design new, more flexible loans that will better help homeowners to weather the kind of economic turbulence that has buried millions of people today in debt.
Young investment bankers, for their part, have a great opportunity to devise more participatory forms of venture capital – embodied in the new crowd-funding websites – to spur the growth of innovative new small businesses. Meanwhile, opportunities will abound for rookie insurance professionals to devise new ways to hedge risks that real people worry about, and that really matter – those involving their jobs, livelihoods, and home values.
Beyond investment banks and brokerage houses, modern finance has a public and governmental dimension, which clearly needs reinventing in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Setting the rules of the game for a robust, socially useful financial sector has never been more important. Recent graduates are needed in legislative and administrative agencies to analyse the legal infrastructure of finance, and regulate it so that it produces the greatest results for society.
A new generation of political leaders needs to understand the importance of financial literacy and find ways to supply citizens with the legal and financial advice that they need. Meanwhile, economic policymakers face the great challenge of designing new financial institutions, such as pension systems and public entitlements based on the solid grounding of intergenerational risk-sharing.
Those of you deciding to pursue careers as economists and finance scholars need to develop a better understanding of asset bubbles – and better ways to communicate this understanding to the finance profession and to the public. As much as Wall Street had a hand in the current crisis, it began as a broadly held belief that housing prices could not fall – a belief that fuelled a full-blown social contagion. Learning how to spot such bubbles and deal with them before they infect entire economies will be a major challenge for the next generation of finance scholars.
Equipped with sophisticated financial ideas ranging from the capital asset pricing model to intricate options-pricing formulas, you are certainly and justifiably interested in building materially rewarding careers. There is no shame in this, and your financial success will reflect to a large degree your effectiveness in producing strong results for the firms that employ you.
But, however imperceptibly, the rewards for success on Wall Street, and in finance more generally, are changing, just as the definition of finance must change if is to reclaim its stature in society and the trust of citizens and leaders.
Finance, at its best, does not merely manage risk, but also acts as the steward of society’s assets and an advocate of its deepest goals. Beyond compensation, the next generation of finance professionals will be paid its truest rewards in the satisfaction that comes with the gains made in democratising finance – extending its benefits into corners of society where they are most needed.
This is a new challenge for a new generation, and will require all of the imagination and skill that you can bring to bear.
Good luck in reinventing finance. The world needs you to succeed.
© Project Syndicate, 2012, www.project-syndicate.org.
The author is professor of economics and finance at Yale University. His new book is Finance and the Good Society.
FOREX-Greek polls help euro rebound but rally seen fading - Reuters
(Recasts, adds quotes, details)
* Euro rises past stop-loss orders above $1.2620
* Gains seen fleeting as banks, peripheral debt concerns weigh
* Euro bearish positions at records, euro/Swiss franc up
By Anirban Nag
LONDON, May 28 (Reuters) - The euro recovered from two-year lows on Monday as Greek opinion polls showed parties which favour sticking with the country's international bailout deal gaining support, leading investors to cut some of the record bearish bets against the common currency.
Most investors were pessimistic over how long the rebound would last, with many worrying about the lack of growth in Europe and the fragile health of Spanish banks. These concerns have dragged the euro 4.7 percent lower in May and left it on track for its worst monthly performance since September.
The euro drew support from opinion polls which suggested a victory for the conservative New Democracy party in the June 17 election. That would make it more likely that the next Greek government will stick to the terms of the bailout agreed with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, enabling it to stay in the currency club.
These expectations saw the euro rise 0.7 percent to $1.2595 , pulling away from Friday's $1.2495, its lowest level since July 2010. It hit a session high of $1.2625 as stop-loss orders above 1.2620 were triggered, although robust offers layered at $1.2630/50 would check gains, traders said.
Volumes though were on the lower side due to a holiday in some parts of Europe, with the U.S. also shut.
"Investors have got a bit exhausted selling the euro in the absence of more negative news," said John Hardy, currency strategist at Saxo Bank. "So we are seeing some consolidation after the euro's sharp drop from $1.33 to around $1.25."
Indeed, speculators bolstered their euro bearish bets to record highs in the week ended May 22, while dollar longs rose to the highest since at least mid-2008, leaving ample scope for a correction as they cut positions and book profits.
"Heading into the Greek elections we'll fluctuate a lot. Because the market is very, very short euro, reactions to any positive news may be bigger than those to negative news," said Mitul Kotecha of Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank.
"That said, even if we get some good news from Greece, the weight of bad news elsewhere is likely to keep any bounce in the euro short-lived," he said.
Sentiment towards the euro took a knock towards end of last week as the state takeover of Spain's fourth-largest lender, Bankia, intensified worries that the rising cost of supporting banks may push the euro zone's fourth-largest economy to seek an international bailout.
The bank last week asked for rescue funding of 19 billion euros and its shares opened down 26.75 percent on Monday. On top of that, Spain revealed that its highly indebted regions faced 36 billion euros of debt refinancing bills this year, way above the previously stated 8 billion euros.
All of which drove the yield spread between 10-year Spanish and German 10-government bonds to a euro-era high.
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Betting against the euro: link.reuters.com/fuv76s
Global manufacturing PMIs: link.reuters.com/byv24s
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TEMPORARY GAINS
The euro also rose against the Swiss franc to 1.2030 after the Swiss National Bank head Thomas Jordan said that Switzerland is drawing up plans for emergency measures including capital controls in case the euro collapses.
He added he will continue to defend a cap on the franc in the meantime. The euro had jumped to its highest since mid-March on Thursday on rumours that Swiss authorities were planning to impose taxes on bank deposits.
With the euro gaining some ground, the dollar index, which tracks its performance against a basket of major currencies, came off its highest level since September 2010, hit on Friday, to last stand at 81.958, down 0.5 percent on the day.
The dollar also lost 0.3 percent against the yen, last fetching 79.40, with traders citing dollar-selling by Japanese exporters who had missed a chance to sell it above 80.00 yen and are now doing so at lower levels.
The yen was further supported as the Bank of Japan minutes suggested a pause in easing, by complaining of "misunderstanding" in markets that they will keep loosening automatically until 1 percent inflation was in sight.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars jumped more than 1 percent against the dollar. The Aussie was bolstered by buying from real money investors and corporates and that helped it pull away from a six-month low of $0.9690 hit last week.
(Additional reporting by Antoni Sladkowski; Editing by Catherine Evans)
Virgin Money launches new fixed rate ISAs and fixed rate bonds - easier.com
Virgin Money has launched new issues of its popular Fixed Rate Bond and Fixed Rate Cash ISA range. The accounts offer customers a competitive rate, combined with certainty of returns for either one or three years. Accounts are available through Northern Rock branches, online, by post and over the telephone, and interest rates are the same through all distribution channels. ISA customers receive the same rates as those with a non-ISA account.
Virgin Fixed Rate Cash ISA
The Virgin Fixed Rate Cash ISA offers customers a rate of 3.30% for one year (issues 9 &13) and 3.60% for three years (issues 10 & 14) respectively. This matches the rate available for a non-ISA savings account and savers also benefit from the tax-efficiency of the ISA wrapper. These accounts allow transfers in from existing ISAs. Customers can withdraw subject to a charge equivalent to 60 and 120 days’ loss of interest respectively.
Virgin Fixed Rate Bond
The one year Virgin Fixed Rate Bond offers customers a fixed rate of 3.30%, while the three year Bond pays 3.60% per annum. Accounts can be opened with a minimum deposit of just £1, and additional deposits can be made into the bonds during the offer period, up to a maximum of £2 million per customer. Interest can be paid annually, or for those who prefer a monthly option, on the last day of the month (available first business day of the following month). Customers choosing to receive their interest monthly receive the same AER as those receiving annual interest.
The Bonds are non-redeemable and do not allow any withdrawals or closure during their respective fixed rate periods. They are strictly limited issues and may be withdrawn without notice once fully subscribed. Once withdrawn, no further deposits can be made into existing accounts. Upon maturity the account will become a no notice matured bond account and investors will be notified in writing upon maturity of the interest rate payable.
More information on Northern Rock’s savings range is available at northernrock.co.uk/savings.
Finance sector prepares for Greek exit - just in case - New Statesman
No matter how unlikely the financial sector thinks Greece exiting the euro will be, it is taking every precaution possibile to make sure it doesn't get hurt by the process.
Lloyd's of London is preparing for a collapse of the single currency, and has reduced its exposure to the continent "as much as possible", according to a report in the Sunday Telegraph. Despite that, Europe still accounts for 18 per cent of Lloyd's £23.5bn of gross written premiums, with much of that concentrated in Spain and Italy, as well as the safer markets of France and Germany.
Richard Ward, the chief executive of Lloyd's, said:
I'm quite worried about Europe. With all the concerns around the eurozone at the moment, we've got to be careful doing business in Europe and there are a lot of question marks over writing business in the future in euros. I don't think that if Greece exited the euro it would lead to the collapse of the eurozone, but what we need to do is prepare for that eventuality. . .
We've got multi-currency functionality and we would switch to multi-currency settlement if the Greeks abandoned the euro and started using the drachma again.
Other institutions are putting their own houses in order. Two weeks ago, ITV's Laura Kuenssberg tweeted from a trading floor where the drachma had already been installed into the systems, and Reuters reported that a number of banks were quietly preparing for the exit, in which case those problems would be the least of their worries:
Some banks never erased the drachma from their systems after Greece adopted the euro more than a decade ago and would be ready at the flick of a switch if its debt problems forced it to bring back national banknotes and coins. . .
A Greek departure from the euro would create legal and practical problems for the banks which would dwarf the relatively straightforward technical job of dealing in a new currency.
But how unlikely does everyone think exit actually is? Are they covering for an extreme black swan event, or is it something which they are all expecting? Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider provides this chart, from Credit Suisse:
For those of you without the maths skills, that's a roughly 15 per cent total chance of a Greek exit, and another 20 per cent chance of a third round of elections (which, of course, takes us right back where we are already). Not definitely going to happen, but worth preparing for in case. No one wants to shout "fire" and spark a run, but no one wants to be the last one in the burning room either.
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