FOREX-Euro supported but Italy, Greece risks loom - Reuters FOREX-Euro supported but Italy, Greece risks loom - Reuters

Thursday, June 14, 2012

FOREX-Euro supported but Italy, Greece risks loom - Reuters

FOREX-Euro supported but Italy, Greece risks loom - Reuters

Thu Jun 14, 2012 4:47am EDT

* Euro gains respite vs dollar but outlook gloomy

* Higher borrowing costs expected at Italy debt sale

* Investors wary ahead of Greek election on Sunday

By Nia Williams

LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - The euro steadied against the dollar on Thursday but investors were cautious ahead of an Italian bond auction at which borrowing costs are expected to rise and Greek elections on Sunday that could lead to the country's exit from the euro.

The common currency dipped against the Swiss franc after the Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment to defend a cap of 1.20 per euro on the franc's value.

Extreme bearish positions in the euro meant its losses were limited despite credit ratings agency Moody's downgrading Spanish government debt by three notches.

Many analysts said the euro was likely to trade in a range between $1.24 and $1.27 ahead of Sunday's Greek vote, with investors reluctant to enter fresh short positions given uncertainty over the election outcome.

The common currency was last up 0.1 percent on the day at $1.2573 with offers expected around $1.2610 and $1.2670, near Wednesday and Monday's respective highs.

"The underlying problem of deteriorating confidence in sovereign debt in Europe is continuing to intensify, although unless there's a material weakening in demand at the Italian auction it's not really going to alter the FX market," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

"The euro has been relatively stable as we head into the Greek election and that will dictate market direction next week. Investors do not want to take on extra risk at this point."

Rome is due to sell up to 4.5 billion euros of bonds later in the session, with its cost of funds expected to rise sharply.

Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy, is coming under pressure in financial markets as reforms undertaken by its unelected government have stalled and with no clear strategy emerging in Europe to end the broader debt crisis.

Concerns about Spain and Italy meant the euro may come under fresh pressure even if parties in favour of Greece's bailout programme win the election.

Victory for leftist SYRIZA, which is opposed to austerity measures on which Greece's bailout deals are conditional, would intensify fears of a potential euro zone break-up, and likely push the currency towards recent two-year lows around $1.2280.

A sharp rise in yields on German Bunds, viewed as the euro zone's safest asset, has raised concerns that the cost of the debt crisis is growing even for the bloc's paymaster Germany.

"The fact that Bunds were sold for two days in a row is deeply disturbing," said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at SMBC. "Investors may be starting to cut exposure to the entire euro area. And if you look at what's happening in Europe, it's hard to think they won't do that."

SNB REITERATES FRANC CAP

The Swiss franc rose against the euro after the SNB said it was prepared to buy unlimited amounts to defend the 1.20 level. The euro fell to 1.20102 francs on trading platform EBS, from around 1.20196 before the announcement.

Traders said the SNB has been buying large amounts of euros in recent weeks, stepping up its defence of the cap ahead of the Greek election that could fuel demand for the safe-haven franc.

"Clearly the SNB is trying to downplay the franc's attractiveness and buy more time. We expect further pressure on the EURCHF "floor" in the coming days, especially considering the Greek elections," said Peter Rosenstreich, chief FX analyst at Swissquote Bank, in a note.

Against the yen, the euro stood at 99.93, not far off an overnight peak around 100.11, with Japanese exporters' bids lined up above 100 yen. The dollar fetched 79.39 yen , off Monday's high of 79.92 yen.

The New Zealand dollar was up 0.3 percent on the day at US$0.7768, paring gains from Wednesday when it hit a one-month high of $0.7808.

The kiwi lost a few pips after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said a weak economy and an uncertain global outlook meant rates need to stay at record lows. As expected, the RBNZ kept rates unchanged at 2.5 percent for a 10th straight meeting.



Forex Flash: DXY consolidation might extend to 81.44/31 - Commerzbank - FXStreet.com
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