By Benzinga.com
Over the coming days, two major events will dominate global markets: on Sunday, Greeks will vote in a national election. Then, next week, the Federal Reserve will hold its June meeting. Traders looking to take a position on these events may turn to the forex market to do so.
EUR/USD Traders can take a position on the outcome of the Greek election via the EUR/USD pair. Those who believe that there will be a negative outcome in Greece (a Radical Left victory) would want to short the EUR/USD, especially after the currency pair has seen recent gains. As the chart below shows, the pair is running into significant neckline support (the straight red line across the top) and is supported by the upward-sloping tend line from the lows hit at the end of May.
This technical formation is interesting in that it usually results in a breakout of prices, often to the upside. However, as this pattern is aligning with the fundamental story of the Greek elections, a wise trader would expect that the results will determine the next move. A negative outcome may send the pair lower, near $1.25 and then to $1.2450, where there are significant technical supports. Upside resistance is in the $1.2780-1.2820 range, so there is significant room for a move on either side.
Gold Some market watchers have said that a negative outcome from the Greek elections will prompt the Fed to take action next week. Traders who follow this view would be wise to buy gold as a hedge against aggressive monetary policy, and a great way to take a position would be with the XAU/EUR cross. Buying gold against the euro will allow traders to hedge dollar exposure ahead of the Fed meeting and also allow traders to grasp onto potential losses in the euro.
Looking at the above chart, support is not too strong until 1259 and then again at 1245, so those are the levels to watch on the downside. On the upside, resistance is at 1300 and then again just below 1315. For those who believe in the optimistic scenario, shorting this pair will allow traders to benefit twice: first from the expected fall in gold (diminished hopes of liquidity) and second from euro appreciation. On the other hand, those that feel a bad outcome is destined should buy this pair, as the long gold exposure is beneficial in situations of added liquidity and being short the euro will allow investors to have a bearish stance on the common currency.
Long the Spread of French 10-Year Bonds Over German 10-Year Any contagion effects of a negative outcome in the Greek elections will be felt in peripheral bonds as traders see European leaders not living up to their words (remember, it was only last summer that Merkel continuously reiterated that no nation is to leave the euro). A loss of confidence in these leaders will result in a dumping of peripheral debt, but the contagion could also move to France, the weakest of the core nations. If French finances start being called into check, French bond yields will move higher and capital flight may weaken the banks. France's two biggest banks, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas, had more assets than the GDP of France at the end of 2011. Thus, if they were to get into trouble, France would have to bail them out--thus putting serious pressure on the nation's finances.
This pressure would result in even higher bond yields and capital flight out of the banks and into German banks or even German bunds. Thus, German bond yields would fall and French yields would rise, driving the spread between them higher. As difficult as it may be to buy bunds at ultra-low yields, it may be the safest play still. By buying bunds, traders are investing in a negative real return (and potentially even negative nominal return), however they are getting an implied call option on a new German deutschmark. Consider that if the euro dissolves, each nation would revert to its own domestic currency. German bunds would then be re-denominated and paid out in this new currency, which would likely appreciate significantly against the euro (some say between 25-50%). Thus, by buying bunds and shorting French bonds, traders get exposure to the potentially negative sentiment surrounding the elections, the flight to quality and out of risky assets, and a call option on a new, stronger German currency.
(c) 2012 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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FOREX-Euro firm as c.banks gear to counter Greek fallout - Reuters
* Cenbanks' liquidity pledge triggers short-covering
* Soft US data keeps hopes of Fed easing alive
* Yen gains after BOJ stands pat
By Anirban Nag
LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - The euro hovered below three-week highs against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as investors trimmed bearish bets on expectations that global central banks will step in to counter any adverse fallout from Sunday's election in Greece.
G20 officials told Reuters that central banks from major economies stand ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the Greek election result roils markets.
A coordinated action is likely to support risk appetite and provide relief to the euro although any bounce could prove temporary given Spain's elevated borrowing costs and the risk of contagion to Italy, the euro zone's third largest economy.
The dollar was also under pressure on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve may resort to further monetary easing after labour market data disappointed and consumer prices fell in May.
The dollar index fell to a three-week low of 81.703 against a basket of currencies. The euro was steady on the day at $1.2630, not far from Monday's three-week high of $1.2672, struck after a 100 billion euro aid package for Spanish banks was agreed at the weekend.
Much of how the euro will trade in the near term will be dependent on the outcome of the Greek election on Sunday. Traders cited offers to sell above $1.2660 up to $1.2670 while option expiries were cited at $1.2600.
"Investors will be reluctant to hold any meaningful positions either way going into the weekend," said Ankita Dudani, G-10 currency strategist at RBS.
"The euro has come back from highs around $1.2650 and the only reason it will hold above $1.2500 is because of the extreme bearish positions and hopes of coordinated central bank action."
Hopes for more policy steps by major central banks have heightened after the UK government and the Bank of England unveiled a 100 billion pound ($155 billion) funding scheme for banks to boost credit on Thursday.
Traders agree that the euro has scope to post short term gains if Greece's pro-bailout parties manage to win a majority in Sunday's election.
"Such an outcome would initially support the euro, but markets will quickly realize that Greece is still mired in a deep recession and may well need to renegotiate the terms of its bailout, in our view," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
"Under this scenario we would look to fade any euro/dollar rallies."
In a scenario where the far-left anti-bailout parties win, the euro could drop towards near two-year lows of $1.2288 struck earlier this month.
The uncertainty was reflected in the options market, where both one-week and one-month implied volatilities traded at elevated levels of 16.50 percent and 12.65 respectively, up from around 9.8 percent and 11.55 percent at the end of last week.
BEARISH POSITIONS
In the past few weeks, speculators have added to very large bearish bets against the euro as many positioned for an eventual exit by Greece from the single currency and a possible spread of contagion to the bigger economies of Spain and Italy.
Spanish and Italian bond yields eased on Friday, but still remained near levels considered unsustainable to borrow from capital markets.
The steadily deteriorating situation in the euro zone has galvanised policymakers to consider taking action ahead of a G20 summit next week.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Friday the bank was ready to support euro zone banks, should it be required. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa chimed in saying central banks can offer liquidity to calm markets in case the weekend Greek elections heighten tension.
All these comments supported risk appetite and weighed on safe-haven currencies like the dollar and the yen.
Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.6 percent to one-week low of 78.90 yen after the Bank of Japan announced no policy change, though that is in line with market expectations. A further dollar drop towards 78 yen is likely to raise caution over Japan's intervention.
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