FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Several large countries still have to sign the Fiscal Compact and ESM Treaty into law. According to Elwin de Groot, analyst at Rabobank: "The ESM was due to take effect today, but both Italy and Germany have been dragging their feet. 90% of the voting weight is necessary to give the ESM the go-ahead. Italy's Chamber of Deputies isn't scheduled to vote on the approval until July 30, Bloomberg reports."
"In Germany, final approval hinges on a hearing by the Constitutional Court with respect to the legality of the ESM Treaty and Fiscal Compact this week. In several previous cases, the Court has imposed more involvement by German parliament to ensure sufficient democratic checks and balances. In the worst case, a ruling could further delay the implementation of the new EU rules." He said.
Ministers seek to untangle measures to help euro - Reuters
BRUSSELS |
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Euro zone finance chiefs will try to flesh out plans to reinforce the single currency on Monday but their talks in Brussels may do little more than highlight the limitations of last month's deal to help indebted states and banks.
Decisions on banking supervision, how to use euro zone bailout money, aid to Spain and Cyprus and whether to grant concessions to Greece are likely to take months to finalize, while pressure for action is growing.
Spanish and Italian borrowing costs moved back up near unsustainable levels on Friday as hopes raised by the summit began to fade. Leaders of both countries issued pleas at the weekend for rapid moves to implement the agreement.
"This is where the credibility of the entire European project is at play," Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said.
The deal reached by leaders from the 17 nations sharing the euro aims to give the European Central Bank greater oversight of the bloc's banks and to use the euro zone's rescue funds to reduce countries' borrowing costs.
But critical elements were left vague, time frames may already be slipping and ministers could end up meeting again later in July to take firm decisions.
"This is very much the follow on from the summit, but it doesn't mean all details can be set down," said one euro zone diplomat briefed on the Brussels meeting that is due to start at 11. a.m. EDT.
"The issue of ECB supervision is a complex, longer-term issue and not one that can be decided in a few hours."
ECB President Mario Draghi will testify to the European Parliament on Monday before ministers meet, and after cutting rates last week could signal more dramatic measures such as buying government bonds or flooding banks with fresh liquidity.
Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, as well as wealthy Finland and the Netherlands, are wary of what was announced at the summit and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is reluctant help its partners without strict conditions.
Central to the euro zone leaders' plan is to give the ECB a central role in supervising banks, which would then allow the permanent rescue fund - the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)- to recapitalize banks directly instead of via governments.
That is seen as a concession to Spain, which has requested a bailout of up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion) for its banks, although it is not clear when Madrid will benefit.
Leaders want to break the link between banks and sovereigns by not lumbering governments with debts for rescuing their lenders, making it harder for them to borrow.
But the central question as to whether individual countries or the euro zone assumes liability for banks that are rescued by the ESM remains open.
Leaders agreed to remove the ESM's preferred creditor status when it lends to Spain, to calm investors who were worried they would not be repaid money they had already lent.
They also decided that the ESM and the euro zone's temporary bailout fund, the EFSF, can buy euro zone bonds at auction and in the open market to lower borrowing costs, with some conditions attached but without a full program.
The ESM is due to start operating during the European summer, but at least for now, countries will need to provide guarantees in return for bank aid it gives, according to one euro zone official who is involved in preparing the Eurogroup.
That might help overcome German concerns about the ESM taking on this risk.
"There is some degree of mystification going on here ... in the broader public who think that under current rules the ESM could all of a sudden end up owning Bankia with the full risk of Bankia on the balance sheet of the ESM," he said, referring to the Spanish lender. "This is very much not the case."
OPTIMISTIC
As always in the euro zone's crisis management, finance ministers are given the difficult task of juggling national interests, in particular among the bloc's four biggest economies, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
But it looks optimistic that they can do what leaders said in their statement on June 29 when they told the Eurogroup of finance ministers "to implement these decisions by July 9".
Much depends on the ECB's crucial role as supervisor, which will need to be grounded in European law. It falls to the European Commission to propose such legislation, which is not expected until at least September.
Despite the obstacles to the broad package outlined by leaders, the range of measures agreed allow some short-term action, and vocal opposition to euro zone bond buying in the Netherlands and Finland is unlikely to ruin those plans.
Finland has said it opposes bond-buying in secondary markets, because it considers such purchases to be ineffective.
In emergency cases, the ESM's treaty allows for decisions to be taken with an 85 percent majority, and the Netherlands and Finland only account for 8 percent combined.
Coordinating euro zone finance ministers has been the job of Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker since 2005, but his terms ends on July 17 and ministers are due to discuss his successor on Monday. However, confusion over who that is likely to be means his term may be extended.
GREECE MUST DELIVER
Ministers will discuss the findings of the "troika" of the European Union, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund from their first mission to Greece since the June 17 election. Another mission is due to return later in July.
Greece's new Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said on Thursday he had been warned to expect a tough time at the Eurogroup, having acknowledged Athens was off course on its pledges linked to a 130-billion-euro rescue.
One senior euro zone official said the Eurogroup needed to see that Athens is getting back on track before it can hand over more aid, even if the previous Greek government said the administration risked running out of money by the end of July.
Greece's Prime Minister Antonis Samaras wants to ease the terms of the bailout, but that would mean more money for Athens.
"Even if the second program as it stands were fully implemented, it is not clear that market access could resume (in 2015)," said David Mackie, an economist at JP Morgan. "A third program seems likely in any event."
For Spain, ministers are likely to agree in principle to an aid package although no formal green light will follow until the end of the month, one euro zone official said.
(Writing by Robin Emmott; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
Community development finance institution loans grew by 35% to March 2011 - ThirdSector
[getrss.in: unable to retrieve full-text content]
The loan book of community development finance institutions grew by about 35 per cent in the year to March 2011 compared with the previous year, according to a report by the Community Development Finance Association, published last week. Inside Community ...Spanish borrowing costs rise ahead of euro summit - BBC News
Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields have been rising ahead of a summit of eurozone finance ministers on Monday.
The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds, which are taken as a strong indicator of the interest rate the government would have to pay to borrow money, rose above 7%, while Italian bond yields rose to 6.1%.
Yields above 7% are considered to be unsustainable in the long term.
Details of the bailout of Spain's banks are expected from eurozone ministers.
Their meeting will continue on Tuesday.
The summit of eurozone leaders on 29 June said it expected the finance ministers "to implement these decisions by 9 July".
Leaders have already agreed to lend Spain's banks up to 100bn euros ($123bn; £79bn) and independent audits have said that they will need up to 62bn euros.
The finance ministers are also likely to confirm which conditions will be applied to the loans, both for the banks and the government.
Analysis
Splits are emerging between southern and northern members of the eurozone about how to implement decisions taken at a European summit last month.
Tempers within the single currency area appear to be fraying.
Spain and Italy want agreements made at the summit to be put into effect as soon as possible, making it easier to use eurozone bailout funds to help struggling banks or struggling countries.
But other member states, notably Finland and the Netherlands, have said they're not going to be pushed too quickly into any kind of collective responsibility for other countries' debts.
Finance ministers will have to find a way around this impasse.
Among the key agreements from the 29 June summit were moves towards banking union with the European Central Bank (ECB) acting as a supervisor and allowing European bailout funds to buy bonds to try to reduce countries' borrowing costs.
But since the summit, there have been signs that Finland and the Netherlands would oppose the use of bailout funds in this way.
There is expected to be discussion of the new Greek government's policies. At the end of a three-day debate, the Greek government, as expected, won a vote of confidence on Sunday.
Another area of discussion for the eurozone finance ministers will be choosing a new leader.
Jean-Claude Juncker has been co-ordinating the Eurogroup of finance ministers since 2005. His term of office ends on 17 July, but it may be extended.
Also on Monday, ECB president Mario Draghi will be appearing before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs to give his views on the state of the currency bloc's economy.
Forex Flash: The EUR is breaking down for reasons we had not expected - NAB - FXStreet.com
Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer.
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
*GFT is a sponsor of FXstreet.com for advertisement purposes only. GFT does not endorse any other products, services, or companies represented on FXstreet.com. The views of FXstreet.com and all other parties contained therein are not necessarily those of GFT, and GFT makes no warranty as to the accuracy of information provided.
©2012 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.
No comments:
Post a Comment